Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has been fighting for his physical and political survival since his ouster from power about 10 months ago. He received bullet injuries during a public rally about five months ago. He faces a hostile media, which is hell-bent to malign his image in every possible way. He also faces dozens of cases recently lodged against him, including the murder of his party worker, who was picked up by police in Lahore and died mysteriously.

Imran Khan appears to be besieged from all sides. It is clear that the government and some state institutions are working to malign him and his party. There are still signs that he will be disqualified and barred from taking part in politics, while former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has been disqualified for life, will return and be free to run his party’s campaign in the next election.

According to analysts sympathetic to the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), there are little chances of the survival of Imran Khan in politics because all state machinery is working against him. Almost all institutions; the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), police, courts, media and Election Commission of Pakistan, are being used to malign his image. The government has filed references against him in courts and the Election Commission of Pakistan to disqualify him. Even his close aides fear he might be disqualified.

Many people in Pakistan are not willing to believe Imran Khan could be disqualified and Nawaz Sharif would become eligible to take part in politics again. Nawaz Sharif was disqualified by the Supreme Court of Pakistan and his review petition has also been dismissed. He was serving a 10-year term in jail when he was allowed to leave the country for treatment in the UK. He is not even on bail. If he returns to Pakistan, he will have to go to jail before applying for bail. Most people believe overturning his disqualification is impossible after the Supreme Court has rejected his review petition. However, many believe Imran Khan will be arrested and disqualified to pave the way for a general amnesty for all politicians, who have been disqualified, including Nawaz Sharif and Jahangir Tareen. However, even if Nawaz Sharif is brought back and given a free hand to run his party’s campaign, he cannot compete with the rising popularity of Imran Khan.

According to people close to Nawaz Sharif, an assurance has been provided to him that Imran Khan will not be eligible to contest the next election. Imran also alleged that a plot had been hatched to disqualify him in Toshakhana and prohibited funding cases to pave the way for Nawaz Sharif’s return from London. He believes the recent onslaught of legal actions aimed to force him to strike a deal with the government to nullify Nawaz Sharif’s lifetime disqualification so that both can compete in the political arena. There are also reports that efforts are underway to change loyalties of former PTI MNAs and MPAs from South Punjab.

Imran Khan has faced a smear media campaign since his ouster at the behest of the government. However, his popularity has been on the rise, partly because prices are at their peak and the common people hold the PDM government responsible for it. In a recent survey, Imran Khan emerged as the most popular leader in the country as 61pc of Pakistanis rate him positively. According to a nationwide survey by Gallup Pakistan, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto enjoyed a 36pc approval rating each.

The survey was conducted in the first 20 days of February 2023, with around 2,000 respondents covering urban and rural areas in all four provinces of Pakistan. “Imran Khan seems to be the most positively rated politician while opinion about Asif Ali Zardari is least positive,” the report said. Imran Khan received a positive rating from 61pc of the population while 37pc rated him negatively. About 29pc from Punjab, 28pc from Sindh and 14pc from KP gave him a positive rating, the highest amongst the provinces for any politician.

Almost three in five (59pc) gave Nawaz Sharif a negative rating while 36pc viewed him positively, with people from KP rating him more negatively than people from other provinces. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto was rated positively by 36pc respondents, while 57pc gave him a negative rating. He got most of the positive ratings from Sindh. PML-N Senior Vice President Maryam Nawaz was rated negatively by 61pc while 34pc gave her a positive rating. People from Punjab see her in a positive light as compared to other provinces.

The survey report said 65pc Pakistanis rated Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif negatively while 32pc gave him a positive rating. People from Punjab rated him more positively as compared to other provinces. JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman received a negative rating of 57pc while only 31pc gave him a positive rating. He received the least negative ratings from KP province. Former President Asif Ali Zardari was rated negatively by 67pc while 27pc rated him positively. However, people from Punjab gave him the most negative ratings, followed by KP and Sindh provinces.

The survey proves that Imran Khan is the most popular leader of Pakistan. However, he appears to be cornered. Recently, the government attempted to arrest him. According to him, the plan aimed to detain him in a Balochistan jail, so that he could not run his election campaign. Efforts are still underway to weaken his party through defections. However, he is known for his fighting spirit and his followers believe he will emerge victorious at last.