The current multifaceted and unprecedented crises in Pakistan—spanning political, constitutional, governance, administrative, economic, and societal spheres—have raised serious questions about the nation’s future as a functional polity or even a cohesive society. At present, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government is not only deeply unpopular but also perceived as lacking legitimacy and power, having allegedly been imposed through manipulated electoral outcomes. Furthermore, the Constitution of Pakistan exists largely in name, with the fundamental rights of its citizens rendered nearly meaningless.

On the societal front, social cohesion in Pakistan has plummeted to an all-time low, with people increasingly indifferent to the hardships of their fellow citizens. This lack of empathy and solidarity is alarming in a nation already fraught with challenges.

At the same time, hyperinflation has pushed the poverty-stricken population into a state of misery, where survival has become nearly impossible. The thin middle class, too, has been severely affected by skyrocketing prices of basic commodities, forcing many of its members below the poverty line. Only the razor-thin upper class appears capable of weathering the storm of inflation. This stark divide, where the impoverished lower class and the struggling middle class face extreme challenges to survival, sets the stage for potential clashes with the affluent upper class. Such tensions are a recipe for disaster.

There are additional critical factors contributing to this looming civil conflict that require urgent discussion and resolution.

Several factors have fuelled the unprecedented price hikes in Pakistan. The primary and immediate causes include overpopulation, poor governance, flawed policies, and a widespread culture of extravagant lifestyles without sustainable means to support them. For many Pakistanis, the ultimate life goal is to get married and have children, a notion they equate with a “settled” life. This unchecked population growth has placed unbearable strain on the country’s limited resources, including land and food supplies.

Moreover, Pakistan annually consumes billions of dollars’ worth of energy products, particularly petroleum, and food items such as edible oil. Since the country imports most of these resources, their prices are susceptible to global market fluctuations. While reducing consumption could alleviate some pressure, most Pakistanis have been reluctant to change their habits, particularly in terms of petroleum and edible oil usage. This unchanged lifestyle exacerbates the strain on the economy.

Government policies have also failed to curb population growth or maintain it within manageable limits. Economists agree that sustainable development requires GDP growth to be at least three times the population growth rate. For instance, if the population grows by 3%, the GDP growth must exceed 9% to sustain economic balance. However, few nations globally achieve such high GDP growth rates, and Pakistan is no exception.

Given Pakistan’s real population growth rate of over 3%—contrary to official claims—and its GDP growth hovering around 5%, which may be even lower in real terms, the country is far from achieving sustainable development. This harsh reality underscores a troubling trajectory for the nation’s future.

The most significant factor driving hyperinflation and the unprecedented rise in prices in Pakistan has been the ineffective, short-sighted, and self-serving policies of successive governments. Unlike neighboring countries like China and India—now global economic powerhouses despite being the first and second most populous nations in the world—Pakistan, with a population six times smaller than China and five times smaller than India, has failed to achieve sustainable economic growth.

This failure is rooted in the priorities of successive governments. Rather than establishing a robust framework for economic development or addressing the basic needs of citizens, these governments have focused on personal corruption, abuse of power, and an overemphasis on state security. Economic security and development, despite official rhetoric, have never truly been state priorities. This disconnect between society and the state has left Pakistan unable to organize itself effectively for the collective benefit of its citizens.

A functional state should facilitate social control, fostering an environment conducive to the development of its people. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s social control mechanisms are minimal, and the growing economic hardships are swiftly eroding whatever remains.

In this environment of extreme insecurity, individuals are compelled to prioritize survival, often disregarding the ethical or legal means of achieving it. This desperation is a breeding ground for civil conflict, and Pakistan is already witnessing the consequences.

In Balochistan, for instance, years of systemic discrimination and neglect have driven many youths to take up arms against the state. Similarly, in the former FATA regions and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, including Malakand division and southern districts, waves of militancy and terrorism since 2005 have claimed thousands of lives. These are clear indicators of an ongoing low-intensity civil war.

The situation in more mainstream provinces like Punjab and Sindh is not much better. Karachi, the capital of Sindh and Pakistan’s largest city, has long been plagued by street crime, extortion, kidnappings, and prostitution. Despite multiple military and police operations aimed at restoring normalcy, fundamental issues like access to safe drinking water remain unresolved, exemplifying the state’s chronic unresponsiveness.

When a state consistently fails to address its citizens’ basic needs, especially amid rising poverty and hyperinflation, the risk of escalating unrest and conflict becomes inevitable. The ongoing low-intensity conflicts, including those in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, combined with rising crime and social fragmentation in urban centers like Karachi, highlight the urgent need for drastic measures. Leadership must prioritize the well-being of the populace over self-interest, taking steps to rebuild trust and address the root causes of discontent. Without immediate and decisive action, Pakistan risks descending into deeper chaos, threatening its unity, stability, and future as a nation-state.