Pakistan stepped into 2026 at a pivotal moment, carrying the weight of a population that has surged well beyond 225 million — with the latest UN and Worldometer estimates as of mid-January putting the figure closer to 257 million while some projections from UNFPA and related reports hover around 240-255 million for recent years, reflecting ongoing rapid growth). This officially makes Pakistan the world’s fifth most populous nation, a milestone that brings both immense potential and serious pressures on everything from resources and infrastructure to jobs, education, health, and the environment.
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) issued a timely and thoughtful statement around late December 2025, right as the year turned, urging a fundamental rethink of how the country approaches its demographics. Instead of the usual alarmist tone that treats population growth as an unavoidable crisis overwhelming the system, UNFPA is pushing for a more constructive view: this large, predominantly young population can actually become a **strategic driver** of sustainable and inclusive development — if managed with smart, evidence-based planning and real commitment to rights and equity.
It’s a refreshing shift in the conversation, especially when high fertility rates (still around 3.5-3.6 births per woman on average in recent data, though showing some gradual decline) remain closely tied to longstanding issues. Persistent gender inequalities limit women’s agency over their lives, bodies, and choices. Access to quality reproductive health services is uneven at best — often nonexistent in rural and remote areas. Social protection systems are weak or simply don’t reach millions who need them. And climate vulnerability adds another brutal layer: extreme weather like floods, heatwaves, and droughts hits women, children, and marginalized communities hardest, deepening poverty cycles, worsening health, and sometimes leading families to have more children as a form of security in uncertain times.
UNFPA stresses that population issues can’t be handled in isolation anymore. They have to be woven into larger strategies around economic development, poverty reduction, and climate resilience. That’s why one of their most concrete recommendations stands out: a serious overhaul of how population factors into national planning and resource allocation — specifically through the National Finance Commission (NFC) formula, which divides federal revenues among provinces.
Right now, population size dominates the criteria (around 82% in the current setup), which sounds fair on the surface but can unintentionally reward higher growth rates instead of celebrating real progress in things like education, health, women’s empowerment, or building climate defenses. UNFPA is calling for a more forward-looking NFC framework — one that ties funding incentives to measurable wins in gender equality, climate resilience, balanced population trends, and better service quality. If provinces got rewarded (with more fiscal space or bonuses) for lowering maternal mortality, expanding family planning access, closing gender gaps, or improving disaster preparedness, it could spark genuine investment in people and accountability. Provinces might actually compete to deliver better outcomes rather than just letting numbers grow unchecked.
Of course, this idea has already sparked pushback — particularly from Punjab, the most populous and relatively more developed province, which stands to lose the biggest share if the pure population weight is diluted. It’s a classic federal tension: no one wants their slice of the pie reduced, even if the long-term goal is healthier, more equitable national growth. Similar debates have cropped up before, with proposals to freeze population figures at the latest census or gradually reduce its weightage to promote stabilization, but consensus remains tough.
The challenges UNFPA keeps highlighting are heartbreakingly persistent and interconnected: alarmingly high maternal mortality, millions of women with unmet needs for family planning, widespread early and child marriages, gender-based violence, and huge disparities in reproductive health care between bustling cities and far-flung villages. These aren’t just health-sector problems — they’re rooted in deep social norms, governance gaps, cultural attitudes, and the massive urban-rural divide. Together, they explain why fertility decline has slowed in many areas and why human development indicators swing so dramatically from one province (or even district) to the next.
Turning this around demands real political will and a complete rethink of population policy at both federal and provincial levels. We need to move beyond rigid targets and slogans to genuinely rights-based, people-centered approaches that empower women and girls with informed choices about education, marriage timing, and family size. There are proven examples from other Muslim-majority countries that show it’s possible: Bangladesh achieved a sharp fertility drop through community-driven, culturally sensitive programs with strong political backing and widespread access to services. Iran pulled off one of the fastest declines globally with committed investment and smart, non-coercive outreach.
UNFPA’s core message is hopeful but urgent: Pakistan’s demographic future isn’t fixed or fated. With better planning, fiscal incentives that reward real progress instead of punishing restraint, and unwavering focus on gender equality, education, health, and human capital, this massive young population — one of the youngest in the world — could deliver a true **demographic dividend**. More workers, more innovators, more resilience — turning potential strain into economic strength.
The toughest part, as always, is bridging the gap from insight to action. It requires steady, sustained funding (not just donor support, but real domestic priority), smoother coordination between federal and provincial governments, reliable data systems to track progress, and the political courage to make short-term tough decisions for long-term gains. In a politically charged environment, that’s easier said than done.
As we move through January 2026, this UNFPA statement feels like a clear call to action at exactly the right time. We’re at a fork in the road: keep treating population as an endless crisis to manage, or start building on it as a genuine national strength. With over 257 million lives (and counting) depending on the path we choose, let’s hope the momentum builds toward meaningful, sustained change. The window for turning this challenge into opportunity is open — but it won’t stay open forever.