Pakistan’s wheat production in 2025, as detailed in the Food and Agriculture Organisation’s recent analysis, reflects both progress and challenges. Bolstered by a $7 billion IMF bailout in 2024, the government’s decision to eliminate the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat has driven a 6.5% reduction in wheat acreage, as farmers shift to more profitable crops like oilseeds and vegetables.
While the harvest exceeded the five-year average by 5%, vulnerabilities in rain-fed regions and market uncertainties highlight the risks of incomplete economic reforms. Pakistan’s latest wheat harvest presents a complex picture. The country has recorded a wheat yield 5% higher than the five-year average, yet the area dedicated to wheat cultivation has dropped by 6.5%, signaling a notable shift in farming practices. Farmers are increasingly turning to more lucrative crops, moving away from wheat, a traditional staple.
This change is primarily driven by the government’s decision to eliminate the minimum support price for wheat in May 2024, coupled with low market prices during the planting season. According to the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS), these factors have prompted farmers to pivot toward higher-value crops such as oilseeds, condiments, and vegetables. While this reflects sound economic decision-making, it raises concerns about long-term food security, particularly in regions vulnerable to environmental challenges.
The FAO estimates Pakistan’s 2025 wheat production at 29 million tonnes, a solid figure bolstered by above-average yields in irrigated areas. However, rain-fed regions, which make up roughly 20% of wheat cultivation, suffered losses due to drought and water scarcity. Northern irrigated areas also faced challenges from insufficient irrigation water, further complicating the harvest outlook.
Meanwhile, the 2025 paddy crop planting, completed by early August, faced disruptions from severe flooding between June and early August. These floods, along with landslides, impacted northern and northwestern regions, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, causing localized crop damage and affecting agricultural livelihoods.
On the trade front, wheat imports in the 2024-25 marketing year fell well below the five-year average following a July 2024 import ban on wheat grain. Additionally, the government imposed an export ban on wheat flour and related products, including those made from imported wheat, which remains in effect as of August 2025. Rice, a key export crop, is projected to reach 5.5 million tonnes in exports for 2025, while maize exports for the 2025-26 marketing year are expected to hold steady at 500,000 tonnes.
Domestically, wheat flour prices, a cornerstone of Pakistan’s food supply, plummeted by nearly 50% from March 2024 to July 2025. This sharp decline is attributed to ample market supply from strong harvests, significant imports in 2023-24, and the government’s decision to halt wheat procurement at a minimum support price since 2024. While lower prices benefit consumers, they underscore the challenges farmers face in balancing profitability with the demands of food production.
In 2024, Pakistan secured a $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), contingent on a series of economic reforms, including the elimination of the minimum support price (MSP) for wheat. This policy shift has significantly influenced the country’s agricultural landscape. The report presents a dual narrative: a robust harvest exceeding the five-year average by 5%, juxtaposed against a 6.5% reduction in wheat-planted areas as farmers pivot to more profitable crops.
The decline in wheat acreage is largely attributed to the government’s decision to abolish the MSP in May 2024, alongside low wheat prices during the sowing period. Faced with these economic realities, farmers have increasingly shifted to high-value crops like oilseeds and vegetables. While this reflects pragmatic decision-making, it exposes vulnerabilities, particularly for the roughly 20% of wheat farmers in rain-fed regions who faced crop losses due to drought and water shortages. In contrast, irrigated areas, supported by canal systems, achieved above-average yields, highlighting the disparity in agricultural outcomes across regions.
However, the reduction in wheat cultivation does not necessarily indicate that scrapping the MSP was misguided. The reform was a necessary step toward reducing government intervention in agricultural markets. Yet, the FAO’s findings serve as a warning: incomplete reforms can destabilize markets, leaving both farmers and consumers at risk. To ensure wheat farming remains viable, the government must implement complementary measures. These include fostering a transparent and competitive market, improving access to affordable loans for seeds, fertilizers, and equipment, and introducing crop insurance to mitigate climate-related risks. Additionally, training in advanced farming techniques, reducing the influence of exploitative intermediaries, and liberalizing trade to integrate Pakistan’s wheat sector into global markets are critical steps.
Without a comprehensive approach to reform, the contraction in wheat acreage could jeopardize food security and the economic stability of rural communities. The challenge lies in balancing market-driven policies with targeted support to make wheat cultivation both sustainable and profitable, ensuring resilience against environmental and economic uncertainties.
The contraction in Pakistan’s wheat acreage underscores the complexities of economic reforms in agriculture. While abolishing the MSP was a step toward market liberalization, it must be accompanied by robust support systems—affordable credit, crop insurance, modern farming practices, and fair market access—to make wheat cultivation viable. Without these, Pakistan risks undermining food security and rural livelihoods. A balanced, forward-thinking approach to reform is essential to strengthen the wheat sector and build resilience against environmental and economic challenges.