As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office next month, the direction of US-Pakistan relations in the first year of his second term will be fascinating to observe. Several factors will shape the course of these relations.

First, the unprecedented political, constitutional, and economic crises in Pakistan. Second, the extremely weak civilian government under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, which faces serious allegations of coming to power through election fraud. Third, the immense popularity of Imran Khan and his PTI. Fourth, Trump’s victory in the elections, despite strong opposition from the US establishment. Fifth, the reportedly positive relationship between Trump and Imran Khan. With these factors in mind, the future of US-Pakistan relations can be forecasted.

Pakistan’s deep constitutional and political crisis will be a critical concern for President Trump. Contrary to the widespread perception in Pakistan that America has always been hostile toward the country and has never sought its political or economic stability, this is a narrow argument. Given Pakistan’s size and its position as the fifth most populous country in the world, the US, as a global leader, cannot afford to let Pakistan destabilize beyond a certain point. Such instability would have catastrophic consequences for South Asia and potentially for other regions, including North America, where there is a large Pakistani diaspora. Therefore, President Trump will likely take steps to help stabilize Pakistan politically. This will require Washington to address the root causes of Pakistan’s instability. Under Trump, the US may adopt a new approach, focusing on engaging with Pakistan’s civil society rather than its government or state institutions. The allegations made by former Prime Minister Imran Khan—who remains the country’s most popular leader—that the Biden administration, in collusion with former Army Chief Gen. Qamar Bajwa, orchestrated his ouster in April 2022 due to his proximity to Russia, will likely factor into Trump’s approach toward Pakistan. President Trump is expected to emphasize the restoration of democracy in Pakistan and the protection of freedom of speech and association, which are not only enshrined in Pakistan’s constitution but also fundamental principles of democracy and human rights globally.

Under Trump’s second administration, economic relations between the US and Pakistan are expected to improve. This will be driven by two main factors. First, Trump has opposed providing aid to countries like Pakistan, believing it to be a waste of American taxpayer money without receiving tangible benefits in return. Second, during his first term, US-Pakistan trade grew significantly, with Pakistan exporting more to the US than it imported. The Trump administration showed interest in fostering trade partnerships with Islamabad as a means of compensating for cuts in foreign aid. Some of these trade agreements even benefited Pakistan’s exports to a modest extent. The US is Pakistan’s largest export destination, even more so than neighboring China. Therefore, even if economic aid is not forthcoming in large amounts, President Trump’s administration is expected to facilitate increased trade with Pakistan to prevent Islamabad from falling into deeper economic distress, which could present a much larger problem for the region.

Currently, there is no immediate and grave threat to American national security in the region. The primary security threat to the US over the past two decades has been Pakistan and Afghanistan-based Al Qaeda, which has been nearly decimated. The Afghan Taliban, meanwhile, are primarily focused on their internal stabilization process. However, the Taliban regime in Kabul is providing full support to the anti-state Pakistan Taliban, or TTP. This support is more related to local ethnic and interstate dynamics rather than any direct impact on US national security. That said, if the TTP continues to receive backing from the Afghan Taliban, it could potentially evolve into a significant threat to American interests in the future.

There have also been reports from the UN’s terrorism watchdog about attempts by Al Qaeda to regroup in Afghanistan. Some reports suggest that Hamza bin Laden, Osama bin Laden’s son who was previously believed to be dead, is alive and has even assumed leadership of the group founded by his father. Unconfirmed reports also indicate efforts by current Al Qaeda leader Saif al-Adel to reorganize the group, with orders for its remnants to converge in Afghanistan. Despite this, a US intelligence assessment from last year concluded that Al Qaeda is unlikely to revive in Afghanistan. As a result, counterterrorism cooperation in the region may take a backseat during President Trump’s first term in office.

The low-level threat to US interests from the Pakistan-Afghanistan region can be inferred from the aggressive stance taken by American policymakers. The Biden administration recently imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities, including the state-run National Development Complex (NDC), which is involved in Pakistan’s ballistic missile program and efforts to enhance the range of its long-range missiles. Private entities like Affiliates International, Akhtar and Sons Private Limited, and Rockside Enterprise have also been sanctioned for allegedly supplying materials for Pakistan’s missile program. President Trump is expected to continue this tough policy towards Pakistan. However, due to the fragile security environment in the region, a trigger event could lead President Trump to reconsider and re-engage with Pakistan for security cooperation.

President Trump’s ‘America First’ policy will require countering China’s growing global influence, and Pakistan has historically been one of China’s closest allies. Since 2014, China has made significant investments in Pakistan, including more than $40 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a major infrastructure project linking landlocked Western China to the Pakistani seaport of Gwadar, which sits at the crossroads of the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. Pakistan’s close ties with China are another important factor that may lead President Trump to engage with Pakistan more proactively.

The first year of President Trump’s second term will be critical for Pakistan, which will need to significantly adjust its policies to secure continued financial support from Washington and avoid facing further repercussions.