The recent attack on Chinese engineers in Shangla district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing five of them and their Pakistani bus driver, was a well-calculated move by terrorists to torpedo Islamabad-Beijing relations as the incident also exposed the capacity of Pakistan providing security to Chinese technical personnel in the country.

Interestingly, both Pakistan and Chinese leadership have expressed the resolve that their extensive ties would remain intact and incidents like that in Shangla could not sow the seeds of ill-will between the two countries. However, rhetoric apart, the terrorist attack definitely has negatively affected relations between Pakistan and China. Chinese engineers and technical personnel have been under attack for a long time in Pakistan and the attacks have not dried up despite promises and guarantees from Islamabad. So the Chinese leadership must be quite perturbed about attacks on its technical personnel in Pakistan and it must have conveyed its concern to Pakistan through diplomatic channels. This is indeed the right way to manage the issue.

It is important to note that no terrorist group has accepted responsibility for the attack. However, Pakistani authorities have blamed the strike on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Now it is quite important why no group including the suspected TTP has owned the attack. Otherwise, claiming such an important terrorist attack would have increased the profile of the owning group. Terrorist attacks and its media coverage, according to experts, serve as ‘oxygen’ for terrorist groups. But despite that, why no terrorist group accepted responsibility for the Shangla attack on Chinese engineers is indeed thought-provoking. There are several reasons for the perpetrator to do so. Firstly, the terrorist who conducted the attack wanted to create confusion regarding the perpetrator. Keeping in view the magnitude of the attack the group wanted to evade the heavy response from Pakistani security forces. In other words, the terrorist group which made the attack wanted to conduct it and also remained incognito. This would definitely make the task of investigating agencies very difficult. Secondly, if it is hypothesized that the TTP conducted the strike, then this is understandable on its part not to own the attack. Because the TTP is mainly based in Afghan-Taliban controlled Afghanistan and if the former had claimed responsibility it would definitely have affected Kabul relations with Beijing. At the moment China is the only country in the world which has extended quasi-diplomatic recognition to the Afghan Taliban administration by sending an envoy to Kabul and also accepting a Taliban representative in Beijing.

Moreover, if the TTP had accepted responsibility for the attack there would have been more pressure on the Afghan Taliban regime to take to task the TTP. Pakistan has since long been asking the Afghan Taliban to rein in the Pakistani Taliban and give up logistic and other support to Pakistani terrorists in Afghanistan. However, the Afghan Taliban remained hesitant to take action against the TTP for several reasons. Above all, the Afghan Taliban consider the Pakistani Taliban or the TTP as brothers-in-arms who have been instrumental in their victory over Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) in 2021. Now when Pakistan has formally blamed the TTP for the attack and it is quite plausible that the TTP may have conducted the strike, then what action China may demand from Kabul against the TTP?

It remains to be seen now to what extent the Afghan Taliban could go to give up support to the Pakistani Taliban on the demand of China. On the one hand, China has invested a lot in Afghanistan particularly its mineral development as well as infrastructure development. Therefore, Afghanistan and the Afghan Taliban owe a lot to Beijing. So it is hoped that the Afghan Taliban would try to decisively rein in the Pakistani Taliban and control their escapades. If this is done, then Pakistan would be a great beneficiary. But on the other hand, the Afghan Taliban are fundamentally a radical militia or non-state actor and therefore, it has not been behaving like a state actor. Moreover, support to fellow terrorist organizations like the TTP is something natural for the Afghan Taliban. So it would be very difficult for the Afghan Taliban to give up support to the TTP for keeping good relations with China.

This is particularly forecasted because the Afghan Taliban is not a monolithic entity and there are different factions within the group. Some of these factions are against China and Pakistan and they do not want to let go support to the TTP for their hatred towards Pakistan and probably towards China due to the latter’s mistreatment of its Uyghur Muslim population. Thus, it is to be watched what course the Afghan Taliban regime follows. Is it ready to give up vital support from Pakistan and China for the sake of keeping close ties with a militant-terrorist group like the TTP?

Now come to the timing of the Shangla attack on the Chinese technical personnel. The timing of the attack is very important because it has come at a time when a new government in Pakistan just took power. Moreover, the timing is important because relations between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan have reached a deadlock over the question of Pakistani Taliban hideouts in Afghanistan and support from the Afghan Taliban administration. Thus it is quite obvious that the terrorists wanted to take advantage of the political instability and chaos in Pakistan. Because the February 8 elections in Pakistan and their outcome have become extremely controversial and it is well-known that the current government of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has come to power through gross rigging and manipulation by the powers-that-be and therefore, lacks legitimacy. This is a very conducive situation for terrorist groups to strike back. It is also important to note that the Shangla attack was made at a time when China is complaining of Pakistan’s sluggish progress on the Chinese-funded China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). So the terrorist group, by not accepting responsibility for the attack, wanted to create confusion about the commitment of Islamabad towards the CPEC.

It is important to note that on the day of the Shangla attack, the separatist Baloch ethnic militant group, Baloch Liberation Army, attempted to storm the Pakistan strategic naval base in Turbat district of Balochistan province. Balochistan is the province wherefrom the CPEC starts from Pakistan’s strategic Gwadar seaport, located very close to the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. The BLA is said to be supported by India which considers Chinese control of the Gwadar seaport having military aims to counter Indian interests. Thus, it seems that Baloch militant organizations and the TTP have established solid coordination to carry out attacks. The biggest impact of this coordination would be on Chinese nationals and interests in Pakistan.