Pakistan has finally announced its decision to repatriate all Afghans from its territory, outlining a comprehensive plan that is already being implemented swiftly. This move to return millions of Afghans living in Pakistan is a significant strategic step, albeit long overdue.

In the initial phase of this repatriation effort, the Pakistani government declared that all Afghans residing in the federal capital, Islamabad, and its twin city, Rawalpindi, must leave by February 28. Only those with valid Pakistani visas would be permitted to stay. This announcement, however, created an impression that these two cities were somehow separate from the rest of Pakistan. Realizing the confusion, Pakistani authorities promptly clarified that the plan was not limited to Islamabad and Rawalpindi but extended to the entire country. Subsequent reports, quoting officials from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, confirmed that the goal is to deport all Afghan refugees across Pakistan.

Despite this clarification, the vague reference to an “indefinite near-future” timeline is problematic. A clear and precise roadmap is essential for the effective repatriation of Afghans. Currently, the Pakistani government has allowed millions of Afghans to remain in the country until June 30, 2025. It is hoped that this “definitive and final” plan will see this date as the non-negotiable deadline for their repatriation.

There are approximately five million Afghans living in Pakistan, divided into three categories: those residing illegally (about 1.7 million), those registered as refugees with Proof of Registration (PoR) cards issued by Pakistan’s National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA), and those with Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC) living in Pakistan indefinitely on visas. Pakistan began deporting illegal Afghans in November 2023. However, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of February 2025, only 825,000 illegal Afghans have returned to Afghanistan — just about half of the total illegal population. This highlights a shortfall in Pakistan’s efforts, raising concerns that some deported individuals may have re-entered the country.

Given this slow progress, Pakistan’s commitment to repatriate all Afghans, whether holding PoR cards or ACCs, seems challenging. Nevertheless, the policy to send back all Afghans remains the right approach and must be implemented effectively, as it offers the only sustainable solution to this complex issue.

Predictably, the Afghan Taliban government has strongly objected to Pakistan’s strategy. According to the Afghan diplomatic mission in Pakistan, Islamabad did not formally notify Kabul about its latest deportation plans. The Afghan embassy voiced “serious concerns” to Islamabad and international organizations over the “mass expulsion of Afghan refugees within such a short timeframe” and criticized the unilateral nature of Pakistan’s decision.

However, this reaction seems to ignore reality. Pakistan’s intention to repatriate Afghans has long been evident, even if previously undefined. The Taliban rulers of Afghanistan have been well aware of these plans. It is puzzling why Afghan authorities hesitate to acknowledge the inevitability of their citizens’ return. The crucial question remains: what objectives do the Afghan rulers aim to achieve by maintaining a large number of their nationals in Pakistan?

Ultimately, Pakistan’s decision to implement a clear and final repatriation plan is a necessary step toward resolving this longstanding issue.

Afghan rulers—whether the current Taliban regime, the previous Taliban rule, or the quasi-elected governments of Presidents Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani—have historically resisted the return of millions of Afghans from Pakistan for several reasons. Economically, these Afghans have been earning in Pakistan and sending financial support back to Afghanistan, making them an important economic asset for the Afghan state. If these individuals return, Afghan authorities fear they would become a heavy burden on the country’s fragile economy.

From the Afghan refugees’ perspective, many are hesitant to return due to two main concerns. Firstly, the precarious security situation in Afghanistan poses a direct threat to their safety, families, and assets. Secondly, the lack of economic opportunities further discourages voluntary repatriation. However, these factors cannot justify indefinite residence in Pakistan. The economic situation in Pakistan is also dire, and with a population of 240 million compared to Afghanistan’s 40 million, Pakistan cannot afford to sustain a massive foreign population.

The impact is particularly acute in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan—Pakistan’s two poorest provinces—where most of the five million Afghans reside. These regions have experienced economic strain and worsening security, with Afghan nationals dominating local markets and businesses. Additionally, there is an often-overlooked link between the Afghan presence and the violence in these provinces.

Crucially, a more alarming reason for Kabul’s reluctance to facilitate repatriation lies in its long-standing irredentist claims. Since Pakistan’s inception, Afghan rulers have refused to recognize the international border, viewing Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and parts of Balochistan as Afghan territory. Many Afghans living in Pakistan echo this narrative, believing they are residing in their ‘own land.’ Afghan Taliban leaders, including their spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid, have repeatedly stated they do not recognize the border with Pakistan.

This irredentist mindset fuels fears that, once Afghanistan achieves some stability, its rulers may revive separatist movements in Pakistani Pashtun regions—similar to the Pakhtunistan Movement of the 1970s. Consequently, Pakistan’s decision to repatriate all Afghans is not just an economic or humanitarian issue—it is a matter of national security and sovereignty.

Therefore, Pakistan must remain firm in its final decision to send back all Afghans without compromise. The survival and security of the state depend on implementing this policy with clarity and resolve. Ultimately, Pakistan’s decision to implement a clear and final repatriation plan is a necessary step toward resolving this longstanding issue.