Pakistan’s new governments always seem to waltz in with a contagious buzz of hope—big dreams that sound great until you peek under the hood and find flimsy policies that leave economists skeptical and the targets feeling like a stretch. Since 2019, this shaky optimism’s been tethered to the IMF’s leash—think the 2019 EFF, 2023 Stand-By, and now the 2024 EFF encore—each one piling on harsh cuts and tight-fisted rules that have kneecapped growth and left the nation’s output gasping.

New governments in Pakistan tend to burst onto the scene with a rosy glow of hope that feels more like wishful thinking than a solid game plan. It’s a pattern that’s hard to miss—promises soar high, but the policies to back them up are nowhere near robust enough to convince sharp-eyed economists that the goals aren’t just castles in the air.

Since 2019, this shaky optimism has been tangled up with the International Monetary Fund’s tight grip—first the 2019 Extended Fund Facility, then the 2023 Stand-By Arrangement, and now another EFF in 2024. These deals have forced tough, belt-tightening measures: slashed incentives, squeezed budgets, and monetary policies that have slammed the brakes on growth, leaving the country’s output limping.

The current economic crew isn’t breaking the mold either. They’re preaching reform with gusto, but so far, the only “progress” is higher utility bills stinging consumers’ pockets—moves that are turning folks against the government faster than you can say “price hike.” The big-ticket structural changes the IMF expects? Still gathering dust. Privatization’s a bust—think PIA’s flop, stalled by half-baked prep and a lousy investment vibe. Power contracts with local producers got a tweak, but Chinese investors are fuming, demanding Pakistan honor its promises. Tax reform’s stuck too, leaning hard on indirect taxes that hit the poor way harder than the rich—over 75% of the haul comes this way. And the budget? It’s still a buffet for the elite, bankrolled by loans from home and abroad.

Without the IMF’s lifeline, Pakistan’s in deep water—unable to pay interest or principal on foreign debts, staring down the barrel of a default. Yet here we are again, with leaders waxing poetic about “potential” instead of tackling the gritty, doable fixes that could actually move the needle. Take Ahsan Iqbal, the Planning Minister—he’s dangling a $60 billion export dream over the next five years. Sounds familiar? It should; his last decade-long visions fizzled out too. Pakistan’s trade deficit clocked in at $2.31 billion in January 2025, a number that’s got a silver lining—it’s down 5.47% from December 2024, per the latest figures from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Even with imports taking a slight dip, there’s a hint of something shifting in how the country’s playing its trade game.

Digging into the details, exports in January 2025 nudged up to $2.92 billion—a modest 0.31% bump from December’s $2.91 billion. Imports, on the other hand, slid 2.33% to $5.23 billion, down from $5.36 billion the month before. It’s a small win, but enough to trim the deficit a bit. Zoom out to a year-on-year view, and the picture gets more colorful. Exports climbed 4.59% from January 2024’s $2.79 billion, showing some grit. But imports? They roared ahead, leaping 10.04% from $4.76 billion to $5.23 billion. That surge pushed the trade gap wider—up 17.78% to $2.31 billion from last year’s $1.96 billion.

For the bigger snapshot—July 2024 to January 2025—exports hit $19.55 billion, a solid 9.98% jump from $17.78 billion in the same stretch last year. Imports weren’t far behind, rising 6.95% to $33.04 billion from $30.89 billion. All told, the trade deficit for those seven months landed at $13.48 billion—up a slight 2.84% from the $13.11 billion chalked up in the prior fiscal year. It’s a mixed bag: growth in the right places, but that gap’s still a stubborn shadow.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Aurangzeb’s in Saudi Arabia, hobnobbing at the 2025 Emerging Markets Conference, where the talk’s all about regional ties, financial strategies, and growth plans. Since the February 2024 elections, Pakistan’s big idea has been wooing foreign cash, especially from pals like China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Trouble is, the heavy hitters pulling in FDI—like China with $747 billion in 11 months of 2024 or India with $29.7 billion in half a year—didn’t just charm investors overnight. They sorted out their own backyards first, building industries and infrastructure that scream “we’re open for business.” Pakistan’s flurry of MOUs with friendly nations? Still just paper promises, no ink on binding deals.

The Finance Division’s latest report pegs FDI at $1.329 billion for the first half of this year—chump change next to 2023’s global $1.3 trillion pot. But here’s the kicker: worldwide FDI is shrinking. Globalization’s fading as the unipolar world splinters into a multi-polar mess, with U.S. sanctions and Trump’s tariff tit-for-tat hammering the final nails. Pakistan’s brass seems blind to this shift, which might explain why the FDI tap’s barely dripping.

To turn this around, the government’s got to wake up to the new global reality and stop chasing mirages. The real gold lies closer to home—unlocking domestic investment could be the spark Pakistan’s been missing. Pakistan can’t keep banking on fairy-tale fixes—it’s time to ditch the daydreams and get real. The world’s shifting underfoot, with global investment drying up in a multi-polar mess, and the government’s got to catch up. More than that, it’s the homegrown potential staring them in the face—tapping domestic investment could light a fire under this sluggish economy. Until the rhetoric turns into results, though, those grand visions are just hot air floating over a country desperate for solid ground.