Antarctica may feel very far away from everyday life. But when ice sitting on land moves into the ocean, it raises sea levels around the world.

That matters for coastal towns and cities. Higher seas can affect homes, roads, buildings, and other infrastructure that may stay in place for decades. A new analysis suggests that Antarctica is very likely to keep losing ice this century, even if greenhouse gas emissions fall sharply. But how much ice it loses is still not fixed.

Much of Antarctica is covered by a huge ice sheet that rests on land. Around the edges, floating ice shelves help slow the glaciers behind them. These shelves act like barriers. They do not stop the glaciers completely, but they make it harder for land ice to flow quickly into the ocean. Warmer ocean water can melt the shelves from below. As they get thinner or break apart, they hold back less ice.

That is where the problem can grow. More land ice can then flow into the ocean, raising sea levels. Robert Kopp, a Distinguished Professor at Rutgers University and a co-author of the paper, said coastal communities need better information about how much sea-level rise they may face. “Coastal communities need to prepare for rising seas, and the amount of rise they will have to manage still depends on the choices we make today. Cutting emissions now can limit the risks facing future generations,” Kopp said. “Better projections can help communities decide how to protect homes, roads and other essential infrastructure.”

The researchers found at least a 92% probability that Antarctica will lose ice overall by 2100 even under a very low-emissions pathway. So even major cuts in greenhouse gas emissions may not completely stop Antarctic ice loss this century. The ice sheet reacts slowly, and some of the changes already set in motion can continue for a long time. But that does not mean emissions no longer matter. The amount of future ice loss can still change. The analysis found at least an 89% probability that very high emissions would lead to more Antarctic sea-level rise by 2100 than the lowest-emissions pathway examined.