Over the last three decades, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland has undergone a seismic shift, one that prioritizes short-term gains over long-term viability. Once the cradle of a thriving cotton economy that fueled exports and millions of jobs, regions like Rahim Yar Khan in southern Punjab are now succumbing to the relentless advance of sugarcane—a water-thirsty behemoth propped up by powerful lobbies and lax regulations.
This transformation isn’t organic; it’s the result of deliberate policy distortions, where crop-zoning violations and a boom in sugar mills have eclipsed staple crops, jeopardizing food security, industrial growth, and environmental health. As cotton acreage shrinks and textile mills shutter, the nation grapples with a crisis that threatens to unravel its economic fabric.
Rahim Yar Khan, historically Pakistan’s crown jewel for cotton production, exemplifies this agrarian upheaval. In its heyday, the district spanned 800,000 acres under cotton, yielding 1.3 to 1.4 million bales annually and anchoring the Bahawalpur division’s output at over 4 million bales. Today, that legacy is fading fast. Sugarcane has invaded these fertile plains, driven by the proliferation of six major sugar mills boasting a combined crushing capacity of 135,000 tonnes per day—nearly 40 percent of the country’s total milling power. One mill is slated for a 10,000-tonne daily expansion this season, while two industrial conglomerates, rebuffed for local permits, have erected new facilities across the Punjab-Sindh border with capacities of 16,000 and 19,000 tonnes per day. This concentration isn’t just logistical; it’s a stranglehold that funnels water and land toward sugar, sidelining cotton and inflating Pakistan’s import dependencies.
The numbers tell a tale of displacement. National cotton production has cratered 34 percent this year, with arrivals plunging 32.64 percent in the 2025-26 season—nowhere more dramatically than in Rahim Yar Khan, where ginning volumes nosedived 99.35 percent from 2,310 bales last year to a mere 15. Overall acreage has withered from 2.96 million hectares to 1.97 million, as farmers pivot to sugarcane’s allure: assured mill contracts and higher per-acre returns, often 20-30 percent above cotton amid volatile global prices. Sugarcane’s ratoon system exacerbates the lock-in; after the initial harvest, stalks regrow for one or two more cycles without replanting, tying up prime irrigated land for up to three years. This multi-year monopoly crowds out wheat, pulses, and oilseeds, forcing imports that ballooned the food bill by 15 percent last fiscal year.
At the epicenter of this reconfiguration are the sugar barons—politically entrenched tycoons whose mills dominate 90 facilities nationwide, split evenly between Punjab and Sindh. Their clout has eroded crop-zoning laws, once mandating mills source cane from designated zones to balance regional cultivation. Now phased out, these rules have unleashed a free-for-all, with sugarcane acreage surging 4.8 percent to 856,000 hectares in Punjab alone for 2025-26, yielding 61.73 million tons—a 2.7 percent uptick despite national water woes. Over 80 percent of output feeds industrial behemoths like beverages and confectionery, ensuring captive demand that drowns out broader economic signals. In Rahim Yar Khan, this has flipped the script: the district now churns out 17.5 million tons of cane annually—20 percent of national production—eclipsing even Sindh’s total.
The ripple effects cascade through Pakistan’s economy like a dominoes’ fall. Textiles, the lifeblood of exports contributing over half of foreign exchange earnings, are gasping for raw material. The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) reports 150 mills shuttered nationwide in the past two years, with over 100 spinning units—40 percent of capacity—idled by January 2025 alone. High energy costs, tax anomalies in the Export Facilitation Scheme, and yarn imports tripling to record highs have compounded the cotton crunch, pushing operations below 50 percent utilization. In Punjab’s textile epicenters like Faisalabad and Multan, 187 units have closed since late 2024, axing thousands of jobs and slashing exports by an estimated $2 billion. Even giants like Gul Ahmed have culled export apparel segments, citing commoditized margins and unviable costs. Without intervention, APTMA warns, the entire value chain—from ginning factories to garment stitching—faces obliteration, diverting billions in investments abroad and eroding rural livelihoods tied to cotton picking.
Environmental tolls amplify the folly. Sugarcane guzzles 1,500-2,000 millimeters of water per hectare—double cotton’s needs—exacerbating scarcity in the Indus Basin, where groundwater tables rise perilously, salinizing soils and turning arable tracts into barren salinas. In Rahim Yar Khan, excessive irrigation has depleted millions of acre-feet, fostering salinity that slashes yields by 20-30 percent over time and erodes biodiversity. Soil health deteriorates too: ratooning depletes nutrients, demanding heavy fertilizers that pollute waterways and spike effluent from mills, with biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) levels from sugar processing contaminating groundwater and rivers. Climate change compounds this: erratic monsoons and heatwaves, projected to cut sugarcane yields 10-15 percent by 2030, strain already overtaxed aquifers. The 2022 floods, which ravaged 80 percent of Balochistan’s crops, underscore how such imbalances leave systems brittle, with staples like wheat displaced and food inflation hovering at 12 percent.
This isn’t mere market whim; it’s policy capture. Sugar lobbies, intertwined with political dynasties in Punjab and Sindh, have lobbied for deregulation under IMF mandates, withdrawing support prices in 2025 and unleashing market volatility on farmers. Yet, while cane output climbs to 83.5 million tons for 2025-26—a 4 percent rise—national sugar production eyes 6.6 million tons, 13 percent above prior estimates, at the expense of equity. Smallholders, locked into mill contracts, forgo diversification, perpetuating a cycle where 93 percent of cane hails from Punjab and Sindh, marginalizing other provinces.
Revival demands a reckoning. First, reinstate and enforce crop-zoning with incentives for cotton—subsidized seeds, drip irrigation rebates, and minimum support prices 15-20 percent above market to match sugarcane’s pull. Second, cap mill expansions in cotton belts, redirecting investments to arid zones via geospatial mapping. Water stewardship is non-negotiable: promote precision agriculture like trash mulching, which boosts efficiency 20 percent and conserves soil moisture. Third, fortify textiles through zero-rating local inputs under EFS, slashing energy tariffs to 8 cents per unit to rival India, and fostering farmer cooperatives for bargaining power.
Pakistan’s agricultural crossroads is dire: sugarcane’s shadow risks eclipsing a $15-16 billion textile export horizon for FY25. Dismantling elite entrenchment—via antitrust probes and transparent procurement—could reclaim 500,000 acres for cotton, generating 2 million jobs and slashing imports by $1 billion annually. The status quo is a slow poison, depleting aquifers, eroding soils, and hollowing industries. Policymakers must choose: sustain a cabal’s feast or harvest a balanced bounty. The fields of Rahim Yar Khan, once white with cotton’s promise, await that verdict.