The rising prices of petroleum products in Pakistan and their unbearable impact on the majority of the population, coupled with the widening gap between the overwhelmingly poor population and a small percentage of wealthy people, are creating serious social and political tensions.
The raging ethnic insurgency in Balochistan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and its expanding footprint in Balochistan are significant indicators of a country facing the risk of low-intensity civil conflict. If remedial measures are not taken, this conflict could escalate further. India and the Afghan Taliban-led government in Afghanistan have also been accused of supporting armed groups operating in Pakistan, including Baloch separatist organisations and the TTP, although the nature and extent of such involvement vary and remain matters of political and security dispute.
Two factors are particularly important in understanding contemporary Pakistan and the relationship between conflict and the country’s economic crisis. The first is its large youth population, with a substantial proportion of people falling within the 18-to-45 age group. The second is widespread poverty across the country, particularly in Balochistan, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Whether one considers armed groups such as the banned Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) or the TTP, economic deprivation and limited opportunities can make vulnerable communities more susceptible to recruitment and exploitation. Many ordinary members of such organisations may come from disadvantaged backgrounds, allowing their leaders to exploit grievances and manipulate young people into confronting the state. By contrast, PTI’s support base includes young men and women from different socioeconomic backgrounds, particularly educated members of the middle and lower-middle classes. The importance of economic hardship and youth discontent in Pakistan’s prevailing political and security crisis is therefore difficult to ignore.
The persistent surge in prices in Pakistan has made life increasingly miserable for the country’s poverty-stricken population, to the extent that basic survival has become a daily struggle for many households. At the same time, the already narrow middle class has been severely affected by the skyrocketing prices of essential commodities, pushing some of its members towards or below the poverty line. Only a small and relatively privileged upper class appears to possess sufficient financial resources to withstand the full impact of inflation. When the poor struggle to meet their basic needs and middle-income households find it increasingly difficult to maintain even a modest standard of living, social tensions inevitably intensify. Such disparities can fuel resentment between socioeconomic groups and undermine social cohesion. If these pressures remain unaddressed, the consequences could be extremely serious, potentially leading to widespread unrest and an escalation of political and internal security conflicts. There are several other important factors that could contribute to further instability in Pakistan, and these must be examined alongside practical solutions to the country’s deepening crisis.
First, there are multiple reasons for the unprecedented rise in prices in Pakistan. One of the most immediate causes is the increase in the international prices of commodities such as oil and energy products. Global edible oil prices have also placed pressure on household budgets and the country’s import bill. Since Pakistan cannot produce all the petroleum products and edible oil it consumes, it remains heavily dependent on imports, exposing its economy to fluctuations in international markets. Reducing this vulnerability requires a combination of lower consumption, greater domestic production where feasible, improved energy efficiency and the development of alternative sources of energy. However, changes in consumption patterns alone cannot resolve the problem, particularly when households and businesses have limited alternatives to imported fuel and other essential commodities.
Petroleum products are critically important to almost every sector of the economy, and their prices influence the costs of production, transportation and distribution. The movement of people and goods, for instance, depends heavily on fuel. When petroleum prices rise, transport operators face higher operating costs, which are subsequently passed on to consumers through increased fares and the prices of goods. Farmers also face higher costs for machinery, irrigation and the transportation of agricultural produce, while industrial enterprises must contend with rising production and distribution expenses. Edible oil prices similarly affect household expenditure and the cost of preparing food. Consequently, increases in the prices of petroleum products and edible oil can contribute to a wider rise in the cost of living, especially in a country where a large proportion of the population spends most of its income on necessities.
Pakistan’s large population also creates substantial demand for petroleum products, edible oil, food and other essential commodities. As the world’s fifth-most populous country, Pakistan faces enormous challenges in ensuring that economic growth translates into improved living standards for its citizens. Successive governments have struggled to implement an effective population policy capable of bringing population growth to a sustainable level. Rapid population growth increases pressure on employment opportunities, housing, healthcare, education, food supplies and public infrastructure. Unless the economy expands rapidly enough to absorb new entrants into the labour market and meet rising demand for essential services, poverty and unemployment are likely to persist.
Economists generally emphasise that economic growth must consistently outpace population growth if living standards are to improve significantly. However, the precise growth rate required depends on productivity, income distribution, investment and the number of people entering the labour force. In Pakistan, population growth has remained high while economic growth has frequently been weak and volatile. When the economy expands at a rate insufficient to generate enough jobs and raise per capita incomes, the benefits of growth become limited for the average citizen. Even when the government reports positive growth, households may experience little improvement in their purchasing power because inflation, population growth and rising essential expenses erode the gains. Under these circumstances, Pakistan faces a difficult path towards sustainable development unless it can accelerate productivity, expand employment and improve the delivery of public services.
Perhaps the most critical factor behind Pakistan’s persistent inflationary pressures, economic stagnation and rising public frustration has been the failure of successive governments to formulate and implement consistent, forward-looking economic policies. While neighbouring countries, particularly China and India, have emerged as major economic powers despite their enormous populations, Pakistan has struggled to achieve sustained economic growth. Its population is considerably smaller than that of either country, yet the country has not succeeded in establishing a development model capable of generating comparable economic momentum. Population size alone does not determine economic success; productivity, institutional capacity, investment, education, technological progress and policy continuity are equally important. Pakistan’s difficulties therefore cannot be explained simply by its demographic pressures.
A fundamental weakness has been the tendency of successive governments to prioritise personal, political and group interests over the development of a coherent national economic framework. Instead of consistently addressing the structural problems affecting production, exports, employment and human development, policymakers have frequently resorted to short-term measures designed to manage immediate financial pressures or protect political interests. Such an approach has prevented the country from building a stable foundation for long-term economic progress. The consequences include weak industrial competitiveness, inadequate investment, limited job creation and continued dependence on external financial assistance.
Another major problem is the disproportionate emphasis on the state’s physical security at the expense of human and economic security. National security is undoubtedly important, particularly given Pakistan’s challenging regional environment and persistent internal security threats. However, lasting security cannot be achieved through military and law-enforcement measures alone. A state must also provide its citizens with economic opportunities, affordable education, accessible healthcare, adequate housing and a reasonable prospect of a better future. When these fundamental needs remain unmet, frustration grows and public confidence in institutions deteriorates.
Economic security and development have not received the sustained priority they require, despite official claims to the contrary. This has widened the disconnect between the state and society. The fundamental purpose of the state is not merely to maintain order but also to organise public institutions and create conditions in which citizens can live securely, exercise their rights and improve their living standards. Effective social control depends partly on public trust, the legitimacy of institutions and the belief that the system offers fair opportunities. Where inequality deepens, economic hardship intensifies and citizens feel excluded from decision-making, that trust gradually erodes.
Unfortunately, Pakistan’s social cohesion is under increasing strain as economic hardship weakens the remaining foundations of public confidence and social stability. Persistent inflation, unemployment, unequal access to opportunities and political polarisation can reinforce one another, creating conditions in which grievances become more difficult to manage. In areas already affected by militancy and separatist violence, poverty and limited economic prospects can further complicate the state’s efforts to restore peace and stability.
The government must therefore treat economic recovery as an essential component of national security. Containing inflation, creating employment, improving education and healthcare, expanding opportunities for young people and ensuring a fairer distribution of the tax burden should form part of a comprehensive national strategy. Development spending must be directed towards communities facing the greatest deprivation, while economic policies should encourage productive investment, strengthen industry and reduce dependence on imported energy. Political dialogue and constitutional processes are equally necessary to address grievances peacefully and prevent political confrontation from escalating.
Pakistan’s economic crisis does not automatically mean that the country is heading towards a civil war. However, the combination of persistent economic distress, widening inequality, youth frustration, political polarisation and ongoing insurgencies presents a serious warning that cannot be ignored. Unless the state responds through credible economic reforms, inclusive governance and sustained investment in human development, the risk of deeper internal conflict will remain. The country’s long-term stability depends not only on its ability to confront security threats but also on its capacity to give ordinary citizens a meaningful stake in its economic and political future.