Of late some very important security related developments have taken place in Pakistan which not only herald the security environment in the upcoming months and possibly years but upon which the future of peace and harmony would largely depend. Therefore, it becomes necessary to take stock of these developments in order to understand what is going on the security front in the country.

The most important security related recent development is Pakistan’s unequivocal declaration that it would not hold any talks with the country’s largest and deadliest terrorist network, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) based in Afghanistan. This was in response to an ‘advise’ by Afghan Taliban administration to Islamabad to hold talks with the TTP. This statement which came from Foreign Secretary Mumtaz Zahra Baloch and even Defence Minister Khwaja Asif has clarified the state policy regarding the TTP. Insofar as the clarity regarding engagement with the TTP is concerned it is indeed very good. However, it remains to be seen to what extent the present coalition government of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and certain small parties stick to this policy. If the past is any guide, then it appears that the governments of the PML-N and the PPP in the past held negotiations with the TTP despite taking a stiff stance against them. Here one must recall the 2008-2009 talks of the PPP federal government with the Baitullah Mehsud-led TTP and the 2013 talks of the PML-N government of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif with the Hakimullah Mehsud-spearheaded TTP.

Now in case the present PML-N-PPP-MQM coalition government continues to stick to this policy of not negotiating with the TTP, then it would have important consequences. Firstly, the TTP would take a more hard line that would result in more and more terrorist attacks in the country, specifically the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, the traditional main target and theatre of TTP terrorist activities. This would in turn result in more bloodshed and casualties among the security forces personnel. Consequently, Pakistani security forces would have no other option but to launch another massive operation against the TTP. Noticeably, Pakistan launched a colossal military offensive against the TTP after the 2014 Peshawar school attack by the group in which around 150 innocent schoolchildren and their teachers were martyred. This operation, termed Zarb-e-Hazb, continued for years and nearly eliminated the TTP from KP tribal districts. However, due to a porous international border of Pakistan with Afghanistan most of the TTP leadership and fighters crossed into Afghanistan and joined forces with the Afghan Taliban who then were fighting against the US-supported Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). So the Afghan Taliban not only welcomed the TTP but also provided sanctuaries to the group inside Afghanistan.

Concurrently, the former Afghan government under President Ashraf Ghani overlooked Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) activities within its borders, aiming to leverage them against Pakistan. This tacit support from both the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban facilitated the TTP’s resurgence. Following the Afghan Taliban’s takeover in Kabul in August 2021, the TTP has enjoyed significant backing, exacerbating security concerns for Pakistan. During this period, Pakistan, led by then-Prime Minister Imran Khan and former Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, initiated peace negotiations with the TTP at the Afghan Taliban’s behest, led by then DG ISI, Lt. General Faiz Hameed. These talks yielded partial success, with a peace agreement in place from June to November 2022. However, the TTP exploited this period to strengthen its forces and continued its assaults on Pakistani security personnel, prompting Pakistan to terminate the agreement and resume military operations. Notably, the PTI government’s engagement with the TTP was heavily criticized by the opposition parties, PML-N and PPP.

Given this backdrop, it is improbable that the current coalition government will deviate from its policy of non-negotiation with the TTP. Consequently, an increase in TTP attacks is anticipated, potentially leading to another significant military campaign, particularly in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province and along the Afghan border. There is also a risk that the TTP may escalate its operations to include major terrorist attacks in urban centers such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad.

Another critical security development was Pakistan’s designation of the Iran-formed Zainebiyoun Brigade as a terrorist organization. This decision, aimed at distancing Pakistan from any involvement in conflicts such as the Israel-Hamas War or Gaza conflict, marks a significant shift in the country’s security policy.

Additionally, the alarming trend of attacks on customs officials in the Dera Ismail Khan district of KP, resulting in several fatalities, represents a new target for terrorists. This shift suggests a possible collusion between terrorists and smuggling networks, a development that poses a grave threat to national security.

Lastly, a report by The Guardian, corroborated by India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, implicated India in the targeted killings of at least 20 individuals in Pakistan since 2020. This revelation highlights vulnerabilities within Pakistan’s security framework.

Considering these incidents, Pakistan’s security situation appears to be deteriorating. The current government faces a formidable challenge in addressing these issues. Without prompt and effective measures, the security landscape is likely to worsen, testing the state’s capacity to respond adequately.