Pakistan’s food markets are spiraling into chaos, with wheat and flour prices soaring to unprecedented levels, placing immense strain on millions of households. The government’s erratic approach to managing these critical staples reveals a troubling misunderstanding of basic economic principles like supply and demand.
Wheat has surged to Rs3,100 per maund, flour bags are Rs500 costlier, and Punjab’s price caps are being blatantly ignored. This crisis, hot on the heels of a similar sugar market debacle, exposes a pattern of inconsistent policies and weak enforcement that invites speculation and profiteering. As families struggle to afford basic meals, the state’s failure to regulate effectively is not just a policy misstep—it is a growing threat to food security and public trust.
The ongoing mishandling of food markets by the government reveals a profound disconnect from basic economic principles like demand and supply. In a nation where staples like wheat form the backbone of daily nutrition for millions, such oversights aren’t just policy errors—they’re recipes for widespread hardship. Recent surges in wheat and flour prices underscore this point vividly, echoing the chaos seen in the sugar sector not long ago. As families grapple with escalating costs, it’s clear that reactive measures and inconsistent strategies are fueling instability rather than curbing it.
Over the last month, wheat prices have skyrocketed to around Rs3,100 per maund, a sharp increase that has rippled through the entire supply chain. Flour, a direct derivative and essential for roti in countless households, has seen a hike of about Rs500 for a standard 20kg bag. This isn’t a minor fluctuation; it’s a burden that’s hitting low- and middle-income families hardest, forcing them to cut back on other necessities or stretch their budgets to breaking point. In Punjab, the heartland of wheat production, authorities attempted to intervene by setting official price caps—Rs2,900 for wheat and Rs1,750 for flour. Yet, these directives are being flouted with impunity in open markets, rendering them little more than ink on paper. Vendors and wholesalers continue to charge premiums, knowing full well that enforcement is lax or nonexistent. This blatant disregard highlights a deeper systemic issue: when regulations lack teeth, they breed contempt and exploitation.
The root of this turmoil can be traced back to the government’s abrupt decision to step back from regulating the wheat market. Without a clear, transparent framework to guide this transition, the move has been nothing short of reckless. Proponents of deregulation might argue it promotes free-market efficiency, but in reality, it has opened the floodgates for opportunistic behavior. Hoarders, sensing vulnerability, have stockpiled wheat, holding out until prices breached the Rs3,250 mark before trickling supplies back into circulation. This isn’t savvy business—it’s predatory speculation that thrives in the vacuum left by absent oversight. Imagine a game where the referee walks off the field mid-match; chaos ensues, and the strongest players dominate at the expense of everyone else. That’s precisely what’s happening here, with middlemen and large traders reaping windfalls while consumers foot the bill.
Compounding the problem is the inadequacy of existing reserves. Punjab holds just over 2.5 million tonnes of wheat, split between public procurement and private storage. While this might sound substantial, it’s woefully insufficient to bridge the gap until the next harvest season in April 2026. Demand for wheat in Pakistan is relentless, driven by a growing population and its role as a dietary staple. Factors like weather uncertainties, potential crop shortfalls, and export pressures could further strain supplies. Policymakers should have anticipated this and approached deregulation with caution, perhaps phasing it in with safeguards. Instead, they’ve injected uncertainty into the system, and in commodity markets, uncertainty is like fuel to a fire—it gets monetized quickly by those with the means to manipulate stocks.
Talks of importing wheat are already underway, positioned as an unavoidable fix to shore up domestic shortages. On the surface, this makes sense; global markets can provide a buffer. However, imports come with their own pitfalls. They invariably cost more due to international prices, shipping fees, and currency fluctuations, which would exacerbate inflationary pressures on already strained households. Moreover, relying on foreign supplies adds stress to Pakistan’s external accounts, widening the trade deficit and potentially weakening the rupee further. It’s a band-aid solution that treats symptoms rather than addressing the underlying disease of poor domestic management. If imports are pursued without strategic planning, they could even incentivize more hoarding, as local players hold back in anticipation of higher value post-import announcements.
Equally troubling is the ground-level absence of authority. The price caps were announced with fanfare, but without robust monitoring mechanisms—such as regular inspections, penalties for violators, or digital tracking of transactions—they’ve become symbolic gestures. A government that fails to enforce its edicts or communicate transparently loses legitimacy, eroding public confidence and making future interventions harder to implement.
This isn’t an isolated incident; it’s part of a recurring pattern that’s all too familiar in Pakistan’s economic landscape. Just weeks ago, the sugar market unraveled in a similar fashion. Exports were greenlit without ensuring adequate domestic buffers, leading to unchecked hoarding and a price surge that caught regulators off guard. Consumers bore the brunt, paying inflated rates while exporters and hoarders profited. Lessons from that debacle—such as the need for supply audits before liberalization and swift anti-hoarding raids—seem to have been ignored. Now, wheat is treading the same perilous path, proving that institutional memory is short-lived. In both cases, the fallout is predictable: everyday people suffer higher costs, food insecurity rises, and the state’s credibility takes another hit. It’s a vicious cycle where short-term political gains or bureaucratic inertia trump long-term stability.
Stakeholders in the flour milling industry aren’t staying silent. They’ve been vocal about the need for a more forward-thinking strategy, advocating for early stock supplementation to avert full-blown shortages. Their warnings are stark: without immediate interventions, prices could spiral even higher, potentially triggering social unrest in a country where food affordability is intertwined with political stability. Dismissing these insights would be foolhardy. Wheat isn’t just a commodity; it’s the linchpin of food security in Pakistan, where it accounts for a significant portion of caloric intake. Entrusting its market solely to traders and speculators isn’t mere oversight—it’s a dereliction of duty that borders on malpractice.
The wheat crisis is a stark reminder that food markets are not mere economic constructs—they are lifelines for millions, intricately tied to health, stability, and social equity. The government’s current approach, marked by reactive measures and a lack of foresight, risks deepening inequalities and eroding public confidence. To break this cycle, policymakers must act swiftly with transparent import plans, robust reserve management, and rigorous enforcement of price controls. Above all, consistent and predictable policies are essential to stabilize markets and protect consumers. Pakistan’s resilience is legendary, but it deserves leadership that safeguards its people from preventable crises. Anything less is a betrayal of the public’s trust and a missed opportunity to strengthen the nation’s food security.