Mobilizing resources for climate resilience
As the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) approaches in November, the urgency to address climate change has never been more palpable. The unveiling of a $1 billion Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) is a promising step towards mobilizing resources and mitigating investment risks to combat climate disasters. However, the real challenge lies in transforming ambitious promises into tangible actions that can safeguard vulnerable nations like Pakistan from the ravages of climate change.
Once again, the “net zero” advocacy is teeming with aspirations as the UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) approaches in November. This time, they’ve unveiled a $1 billion Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) – to be “capitalized with contributions from fossil fuel producing nations and enterprises across oil, gas, and coal”; with Azerbaijan as a pioneering benefactor. It is intended to be a catalytic public-private partnership fund, designed to mobilize the private sector and mitigate investment risks.
The fund will also encompass special facilities providing concessional and grant-based assistance to swiftly address the repercussions of natural calamities in developing nations. Moreover, it is but one initiative within a suite of 14 unveiled by the COP29 president-designate, forming part of the “action agenda to enhance ambition and enable action.”
Countries like Pakistan, severely afflicted by climate change, would undoubtedly welcome such initiatives. However, we have frequently observed a significant disparity between the net zero lobby’s promises and the actual aid that materializes when crises occur. Hence, nations like Pakistan can be excused for viewing these annual assertions with skepticism.
This is not to undermine the importance of these initiatives. Indeed, following the expiration of the Kyoto Protocol, the UN remains the sole entity consistently devising progressive strategies to tackle climate change. The CFAF is also a visionary, finance-driven concept aiming to bind the largest polluters into a fund, investing all proceeds back into the fund itself to pursue long-term goals while creating sufficient fiscal space to address sudden disasters, particularly in the poorest nations that, like Pakistan, suffer deaths and billions in losses through no fault of their own.
These countries lack both the financial resources and the capacity to confront such challenges. Yet, when they seek aid, the lobby makes grand promises, especially of financial support, but often fails to deliver. Therefore, the UN’s decision to establish such a fund indicates its recognition of the problem and its efforts to devise workable solutions. Wealthy countries, also the chief culprits in climate degradation, might not contribute the desperately needed funds for emergencies, but some should be credited for their efforts to reduce emissions.
In fact, much of Europe would have progressed significantly towards net zero emissions if the Covid recession and subsequent high-interest rate environment had not abruptly rendered such ambitions impractical and unaffordable. Furthermore, since geopolitics often supersedes idealism in reality, ongoing conflicts, trade disruptions, and the persistent threat of a broader war in the Middle East driving up oil prices will prevent most states from diverting substantial funds towards climate change for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the world will still require some form of fund that steps in when disaster strikes.
Pakistan, for instance, is once again on the brink of monsoon season, with national and provincial disaster management authorities once again cautioning about the kind of rains and floods that wreak havoc here almost every other year now. A $1 billion fund, even if it becomes operational, will be insufficient, even considering just Pakistan’s annual experience with rain, flash floods, and droughts. But it’s a beginning. The aim is to get more and more countries to pledge significant funds to the cause. Thus far, despite all the rhetoric and warnings, this crucial element has been lacking.
The UN undoubtedly has the reach to initiate momentum, but the true test will be in the results. Come November, many questions will be answered, particularly regarding which nations are genuinely prepared to allocate funds where they are critically needed.
Climate change is pushing average global temperatures far beyond the assessments of the Global Stocktake. Last Sunday marked the hottest day ever recorded worldwide, with average surface air temperatures reaching 17.09°C; this record was surpassed with temperatures hitting 17.15°C, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which has monitored such data since 1940.
While the first half of the year was unusually warm, attributed to the El Niño phenomenon, its effects have now diminished. As global warming persists, climate scientists predict more records will be set and broken. Developed countries, in particular, continue to burn fossil fuels, warming the Earth’s atmosphere more frequently, igniting wildfires in several nations, including the US, Canada, Russia, and Australia, and causing heatwaves elsewhere. In Pakistan, this summer’s average temperatures have been 5°C to 6°C above normal.
Due to global warming, Pakistan has experienced devastating rains and subsequent floods in recent years. The most severe climate disaster struck in 2022, when floods inundated one-third of the country, affecting 33 million people and causing economic losses of $14.9 billion.
Moreover, our glaciers, the largest outside the polar regions, which feed the country’s river system and support its agrarian economy, are melting rapidly. Pakistan, already a water-stressed nation, is on the brink of becoming even more water-scarce. An Asian Development Bank report released a few months ago noted that water demand is projected to increase by 60% by 2047 compared to current levels, leading to a significant decline in crop and livestock productivity. This alarming forecast includes an estimated 33 potential glacial lake outburst floods.
This process has already begun, releasing millions of cubic meters of water and debris within hours, causing loss of life, property destruction, and displacing local populations. While climate change poses a significant threat to Pakistan’s economy and way of life, the government has yet to prioritize risk reduction measures.
The necessary actions are clear. We need to construct climate-resilient rural and urban infrastructure to protect lives and livelihoods and ensure food security. Implementing flood safety measures, including early warning systems, and adopting climate-smart agricultural practices are essential. Achieving this requires meticulous planning and the mobilization of additional funds, which our crisis-ridden economy cannot currently afford. Therefore, it is crucial for our policymakers to prepare adequately, as Bangladesh has done, to access climate finance and benefit from new international initiatives aimed at addressing multiple global crises, particularly the impact of climate change on developing countries like ours.
While the UN has the influence to initiate critical climate action, the true measure of success will be in the concrete outcomes. As global temperatures continue to rise, the urgency for substantial and sustained funding cannot be overstated. Pakistan’s experience underscores the dire need for immediate and effective climate resilience measures. By preparing adequately and accessing international climate finance, Pakistan and other developing nations can hope to mitigate the devastating impacts of climate change and secure a more sustainable future.