Pakistan is heading into the Rabi cropping season with a projected 22 per cent irrigation water shortage, raising concerns about the production of wheat and several other important winter crops in Punjab and Sindh. The anticipated shortfall comes amid lower-than-expected river inflows, declining water storage and a significant reduction in water availability compared with the previous year.
The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has estimated that water availability for the Rabi season, running from October 1 to March 31, will remain substantially below the requirements of the provinces. The shortage could affect the cultivation and growth of wheat, tobacco, barley, mustard, gram, lentils, potatoes, onions and tomatoes, all of which contribute to the country’s food supply and agricultural economy.
According to the seasonal assessment, provincial irrigation withdrawals have been set at 29.183 million acre-feet (MAF), against anticipated inflows of 21.268 MAF at the rim stations. The difference highlights the pressure on Pakistan’s irrigation system as it enters a crucial period for winter crop production.
Irsa said the projected shortage would be reviewed periodically in light of changes in river inflows and the overall availability of water during the season. This means provincial water supplies could be reassessed if actual inflows differ from the current estimates.
Under the approved provincial allocation, Punjab will receive 15.564 MAF of irrigation water during the Rabi season, while Sindh has been allocated 11.748 MAF. The Chashma Right Bank Canal (CRBC) system in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa will receive 0.701 MAF, and Balochistan’s allocation has been fixed at 1.171 MAF.
The combined provincial withdrawals amount to 29.183 MAF, reflecting the distribution approved by the committee for the winter cropping period.
Punjab and Sindh are particularly important to the country’s agricultural output because of their extensive irrigated farming systems and large cultivated areas. Any disruption in water availability can complicate decisions about sowing, irrigation scheduling and the allocation of limited supplies among competing crops.
Wheat is likely to remain a major concern because it is Pakistan’s principal staple crop and plays a central role in national food security. Water shortages during critical stages of crop development can affect yields, particularly where farmers have limited access to alternative water sources.
Other crops, including barley, gram, lentils, mustard, potatoes, onions and tomatoes, also depend on timely irrigation for satisfactory growth. A shortage during the Rabi season could therefore have implications extending beyond wheat production to the availability and prices of other agricultural commodities.
The extent of any impact will depend on the timing and severity of the shortage, local rainfall, groundwater availability and the efficiency with which farmers use the water allocated to them.
The advisory committee also reviewed the water position during the Kharif 2026 season and noted that actual river inflows amounted to 95.44 MAF. This was 8 per cent below the anticipated level, 7 per cent lower than the 10-year average and 22 per cent below the corresponding figure for the previous year.
The lower inflows reflect the continuing pressure on the country’s water resources and have implications for the availability of supplies entering the winter season.
Water storage also remained below expectations. On September 30, total storage stood at 9.343 MAF, compared with an anticipated 12.014 MAF. It was also below the 10-year average of 9.938 MAF and considerably lower than the 13.214 MAF recorded a year earlier.
The storage position is significant because reservoirs provide an important buffer against fluctuations in river flows. When storage levels are lower than expected at the end of one cropping season, the system has less capacity to compensate for reduced inflows during the next season.
The figures suggest that Pakistan entered the Rabi season with less stored water than anticipated, adding to the challenge of meeting irrigation requirements across the provinces.
The committee’s review further showed that downstream Kotri escapage during Kharif stood at 10.40 MAF. The volume was substantially below the anticipated 13.05 MAF, the 10-year average of 15.43 MAF and the 30.85 MAF recorded during the previous year.
Water releases downstream of Kotri Barrage are important for maintaining freshwater flows towards the Indus Delta. The significant decline in escapage therefore highlights the need to balance agricultural requirements with the environmental needs of the lower Indus system.
The committee also noted that provincial water utilisation during Kharif remained below the respective shares specified under the Water Apportionment Accord. Punjab’s utilisation was 11 per cent below its share, Sindh’s was 7 per cent lower, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa used 28 per cent less, and Balochistan’s utilisation remained 58 per cent below its allocated share.
These figures indicate that actual provincial water use was below the respective accord shares during the season. However, lower utilisation does not necessarily mean that water shortages were absent, as actual use can also be influenced by the timing of supplies, irrigation infrastructure, local requirements and the availability of water at different locations.
The call highlights the importance of timely completion of water and hydropower infrastructure to improve the management and availability of supplies. Better coordination between reservoir operations, irrigation requirements and hydropower generation remains essential for addressing competing demands on the country’s water resources.
However, infrastructure development alone cannot eliminate the challenges posed by variable river flows and limited storage. Efficient water distribution, improved irrigation practices and effective coordination among federal and provincial authorities will also be necessary to reduce the impact of shortages.
The projected Rabi shortage underscores the vulnerability of Pakistan’s agricultural sector to fluctuations in river inflows and inadequate water storage. With wheat and other essential crops entering their winter growing cycle, the availability of irrigation supplies will remain a major concern for farmers and policymakers.
The periodic review of allocations may help Irsa respond to changing conditions, but the broader challenge requires more efficient water use, improved infrastructure and stronger coordination among the provinces. Ensuring that available supplies reach farms at the right time will be as important as the overall volume of water allocated.
Ultimately, Pakistan’s ability to protect agricultural production will depend on how effectively it manages scarce water resources. With river inflows and storage levels below expectations, careful distribution, conservation and timely infrastructure development will be essential to limit the effects of the anticipated shortage on crop yields, food supplies and rural livelihoods.