Pakistan’s long-standing challenge of hosting millions of Afghan nationals remains far from fully resolved, despite the return of a significant number of people to Afghanistan. The presence of more than 4.4 million Afghan nationals in Pakistan, whether as refugees or undocumented residents, has been a major issue for decades. The matter carries important implications for security, governance, public services and social cohesion.

According to data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the International Organization for Migration, more than 2.1 million Afghans had returned from Pakistan to Afghanistan by mid-April 2026. Although this is a substantial figure, it remains limited when viewed against the broader scale of Afghan migration into Pakistan over the past four decades. Officially, Pakistan has maintained that around 4.4 million Afghan nationals have been living in the country. These include holders of Proof of Registration cards and Afghan Citizen Cards, as well as undocumented residents. Independent estimates, however, have often placed the total number of Afghan nationals who have lived in Pakistan since 1980 at between six and eight million.

One of the central difficulties has been the absence of precise and comprehensive data. Weaknesses in registration systems, incomplete surveys and the inability to maintain updated records have made accurate counting difficult. Births within Afghan families in Pakistan have further complicated the documentation process. In addition, administrative weaknesses and corruption in registration procedures have at times created uncertainty regarding the exact number of Afghan nationals residing in the country. These factors have prevented policymakers from obtaining a clear picture of the scale of the issue.

Political considerations have also contributed to the complexity of the matter. Over the years, different policy approaches toward Afghanistan, including broader strategic calculations, often delayed the development of a consistent long-term framework on refugee management, documentation and repatriation. As a result, Pakistan struggled for decades to formulate a comprehensive and effective policy.

In recent years, however, the state has pursued a more structured repatriation policy. The return of around 2.1 million Afghan nationals within a relatively short period reflects a notable shift in implementation. Compared with previous decades, when returns remained limited, this represents a significant administrative development.

At the same time, the issue remains far from fully addressed. A substantial number of undocumented Afghan nationals are still living in Pakistan. Policymakers therefore face the challenge of balancing national security considerations, economic pressures, administrative capacity and humanitarian responsibilities. Provinces such as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which have hosted large Afghan populations for many years, have faced particular pressure on infrastructure, employment opportunities, education, health services and local resources.

Security concerns have become especially prominent in recent years. Pakistan has repeatedly linked the presence of cross-border militant networks, including the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan, to instability along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The difficult geography of former tribal areas, weak institutional presence and long-standing economic deprivation created conditions that militant groups were able to exploit. These factors, combined with broader regional instability, contributed to the rise of violent extremism that has caused heavy human and economic losses for Pakistan.

The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021 added another dimension to the issue. Pakistani officials have argued that the changed political situation in Afghanistan strengthens the case for repatriation, particularly in view of Islamabad’s security concerns. Afghan authorities have also publicly called on Afghan nationals abroad to return home.

From a legal perspective, Pakistan is not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention. Nevertheless, international refugee law generally holds that refugee protection may end when the circumstances that caused displacement have fundamentally changed. This principle remains part of the broader debate surrounding Afghan repatriation.

The challenge for Pakistan now is to develop a clear, lawful and sustainable policy that addresses national security, economic pressures and administrative realities while ensuring that any repatriation process is orderly, transparent and consistent with humanitarian principles. The issue has shaped Pakistan’s domestic and regional policy for more than four decades and will continue to require careful management in the years ahead.