As Pakistan positions itself among the contenders for BRICS membership, the nation stands at a crossroads—its strategic importance unquestionable, yet its economic foundations fragile.
In a world shifting toward multipolar power dynamics, Pakistan’s geopolitical value offers a rare opportunity to claim a stronger voice on the global stage. However, without decisive reforms and internal stability, this ambition risks being undermined by persistent fiscal dependency and structural weaknesses.
Pakistan is expected to be granted membership of BRICS next year in spite of Indian opposition due to its geopolitical importance demonstrated by not only public support for Iran during the June attacks by Israel and the US, our resounding military victory against India in May 2025 and perhaps equally pertinently as a tried and trusted friend of China for decades.
Pakistan’s clout is not based on economic strength as is evident in the case of India, with over $670 billion foreign exchange reserves in August 2024, that provides India with tremendous clout to influence Western economic and foreign policy, which is backed by GDP growth at over 8 percent in 2023-24, buoyant manufacturing sector growth at nearly 10 percent, and a vibrant banking sector with the Reserve Bank of India taking discount rate decisions independent of any external influence.
In contrast, Pakistan’s economy remains fragile to this day, our current expenditure remains outsized with the mark-up on debt increasing as a percentage of total current expenditure, the manufacturing base remains unchanged and largely consumer based with international price fluctuations accounting for total export proceeds rather than higher value-added output and last but not least since 2019 the International Monetary Fund has extended programme loans at extremely harsh upfront conditions and taken away the capacity of the economic team to adjust fiscal or monetary policies to ease rising poverty levels, estimated at 44.2 percent as per the World Bank.
There are those who argue that the difference in clout between India and Pakistan is premised on geographical differences: Pakistan’s land is a mere a quarter that of India with a population only 17 percent, which accounts for Indian GDP ten times higher than Pakistan’s. However, Pakistan’s sustained poor economic performance can be laid at the doorstep of powerful influential groups who not only appropriate the bulk of the budget each year for themselves but also continue to exert undue influence over fiscal and monetary policies that IMF warns in its documents, risks laying the groundwork for social unrest.
India is a member of the prestigious G-20 club, though in 2023 the African Union joined as the 21st member, jointly accounting for nearly 85 percent of gross world product, 75 percent of international trade, 56 percent of global population and 60 percent of world’s land area. Russian membership was suspended in March 2022, proposed by US President Biden, subsequent to the invasion of Ukraine, with China opposing the move. China retains its membership, though President Xi Jinping did not attend the 2023 summit held in New Delhi but did attend the 2024 summit held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The G-20 addresses a wide-range of topics relating to the global economy, including international financial stability, climate change mitigation and sustainable development.
In addition, India is one of the founding members of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) set up in 2009, with South Africa joining a year later, which has now emerged as a powerful bloc with an influx of applications for membership. Pakistan is among the applicants. The importance of BRICS has increased exponentially subsequent to the US-led West refusal to acknowledge a fast-developing multi-polarity as China and Russia compete with the US in economic and military might.
The weaponising of sanctions by the US and allies further consolidated the relevance of BRICS with a consensus that the way forward is to weaken the dollar dominance in global trade as well as find an alternate route to allow payments for international trade outside the West controlled SWIFT system.
While India registers high growth rates attributed to consistent economic policies and of greater significance, little political uncertainty, Pakistan continues to rely on the IMF to extract it time and again from the boom-bust cycle, Pakistan is currently on the twenty-fourth programme, and instead of loosening its hold on the economy over time the IMF has tightened it to such an extent that even the three friendly countries are unwilling to extend loans without the country being on a rigid monitored programme.
It is, therefore, about time the government undertook economic reforms that are in-house on the basis of voluntary sacrifice by the influential, recipients of the budget in terms of expenditure and revenue source, and at the same time ensure political stability and internal security, which would ultimately help us grow economically in an effective and meaningful manner. Only then will we be able to compete with India in the economic arena as well.
For Pakistan, joining BRICS could serve as both a diplomatic milestone and a strategic pivot toward greater economic independence. Yet membership alone cannot deliver prosperity. It demands a homegrown reform agenda, built on sacrifices from influential beneficiaries of state resources, coupled with political steadiness and robust internal security. Only by fortifying its economic base from within can Pakistan transform its strategic leverage into tangible, long-term growth capable of competing with regional powers like India.