Picture a family in Karachi, scraping by on remittances sent from a relative working abroad, while the cost of groceries climbs higher each month. This is the reality for millions in Pakistan, where a fleeting current account surplus of $2.1 billion in FY25 has crumbled into a $624 million deficit in just the first two months of FY26. The numbers tell a story of an economy stretched thin, reliant on volatile remittances and burdened by imports it can’t escape. For ordinary Pakistanis, it’s not just about balance sheets—it’s about survival.
Pakistan feels like it’s walking a tightrope, teetering between fleeting moments of stability and the constant pull of economic strain. Just last year, in FY25, the country celebrated a rare current account surplus of $2.1 billion—a glimmer of hope for families and businesses alike. But that hope faded fast. By July and August, the account slipped back into a $624 million deficit. It’s a small number, but it speaks volumes about a deeper truth: Pakistan’s economy is fragile, and the surplus was never built to last. For millions of Pakistanis, this isn’t just about numbers—it’s about the daily struggle to make ends meet in a system that feels rigged against them.
In those first two months of FY26, Pakistan imported $10.4 billion worth of goods, a 9% jump from last year. Exports, meanwhile, crept up 10% to $5.3 billion. That leaves a gaping $5.1 billion trade deficit for goods alone, and when you factor in services, the gap widens to $5.8 billion. Add another $1.5 billion in primary income outflows—like debt payments and profits sent abroad—and the picture gets bleaker. The only cushion? Remittances from workers overseas, which hit $6.8 billion. Those dollars sent home by Pakistanis abroad are a lifeline, but they’re not enough to close the gap. Last year’s surplus is gone, like a mirage in the desert.
The import bill is climbing, and it’s not just one culprit. Food imports shot up 37% to $1.5 billion, even without wheat or sugar purchases. Palm oil imports rose 30%, and other food items nearly doubled to $460 million. This isn’t just prices going up—people are buying more, a sign that families are trying to get back on their feet after tough times. But here’s the catch: every time the economy starts to breathe, the external account chokes. More consumption means more imports, and Pakistan’s wallet can’t keep up.
Then there’s machinery, up 23% to $1.7 billion. Mobile phones alone doubled to $300 million, but even without them, things like textile machines, office equipment, and construction gear are driving the bill higher. This isn’t frivolous spending—it’s the stuff businesses need to grow, to produce, to compete. But every machine comes with a dollar price tag, and Pakistan’s growth is tethered to imports. Transport imports are another sore spot, nearly doubling to $626 million. Car parts for assembly jumped 130%, and bus imports soared 185%. Sure, policymakers might slap on more taxes or restrict car loans, but even without luxury vehicles, the import trend is relentless.
Petroleum offers a sliver of relief, with the bill down 5% to $2.5 billion. But don’t be fooled—Pakistan is using more fuel, not less. Petroleum product imports grew 32% in volume, and crude oil was up 5%. The lower dollar cost is thanks to global prices, not smart policy. Liquefied natural gas imports are locked into contracts, so Pakistan’s energy bill dances to the tune of world markets, not local choices.
On the export side, the story is disheartening. Total exports barely budged, up just 1% to $5.1 billion. Food exports tanked 26% to $775 million, hit hard by last year’s flood-damaged crops and the end of India’s rice export ban. Textiles, the backbone of Pakistan’s exports, grew 10% to $3.2 billion, thanks to garments and knitwear. But exporters are struggling, squeezed by high energy costs and taxes that feel like punishment. Other sectors—like leather, sports goods, and surgical instruments—are stuck, barely growing. One bright spot is IT services, up 18% to $692 million, but it’s a drop in the bucket compared to the trade gap.
Pakistan’s exports feel like a small shop selling the same old goods in a world that’s moved on. The country leans heavily on textiles and a handful of low-value products, while global demand shifts to high-tech and innovative goods. Every year, officials cheer small gains in textiles or IT, but the numbers tell a different story: Pakistan’s export engine is sputtering, unable to keep pace with its needs.
Services aren’t helping either, adding $700 million to the deficit as Pakistan pays for freight, travel, and business services far more than it earns. The primary income account is even worse—$1.5 billion in outflows, nearly matching textile exports. This is the cost of living on borrowed time: debt payments, interest, and profits sent abroad drain the economy. Every hard-earned dollar from exports or remittances gets eaten up here.
Remittances are the one thing keeping Pakistan afloat. In July and August, they hit $6.4 billion, up 7% from last year. But that’s a slowdown from FY25’s boom, and remittances aren’t a magic fix. They depend on exchange rates and job markets abroad—things Pakistan can’t control. Counting on them as a strategy is like hoping the weather stays sunny forever.
This isn’t just a rough patch; it’s a trap. Pakistan can’t grow without importing more—machines, fuel, food, you name it. But every dollar earned gets swallowed by debt or obligations. Imports are baked into the economy’s DNA, while exports are narrow and stuck. Remittances are a lifeline but unreliable, and debt payments are a constant weight. Last year’s surplus came from a freak remittance spike, not a stronger economy. The deficit’s return in FY26 isn’t a shock—it’s Pakistan’s normal.
Policymakers might try quick fixes: taxing cars, slapping duties on phones, or tightening financing. But these are Band-Aids on a broken system. The real problem is structural. Tariffs make inputs expensive, hurting businesses. The rupee’s value discourages formal remittances and makes exports less competitive. Debt eats up resources that could be invested in growth. And Pakistan needs new industries—think agribusiness, engineering, or services—to break free from its textile-heavy rut.
Until these big changes happen, Pakistan’s economy will keep swinging between fleeting surpluses and nagging deficits. Every surplus is sold as a win, every deficit as a scare. But the truth hits harder: this economy isn’t thriving—it’s surviving on the dollars sent home by workers abroad. That’s not stability; it’s a lifeline. For the millions of Pakistanis dreaming of a better future, it’s time for bold moves to build an economy that works for everyone, not just the lucky few.