Having endured one of its worst floods last year, Punjab is preparing for the possibility of high floods this year despite the situation remaining normal so far. The decision reflects a cautious approach shaped by uncertainty, particularly the absence of vital upstream river-flow data from India following its unilateral suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

In circumstances where early-warning systems are deprived of critical information, preparing for the worst is not an overreaction. It is a necessary precaution. Flood forecasting plays a crucial role in protecting lives and limiting damage. Accurate and timely information allows authorities to evacuate vulnerable communities, reinforce embankments, regulate reservoirs, protect infrastructure, and coordinate emergency responses before floodwaters arrive. The more time authorities have, the greater their ability to reduce the human and economic cost of a disaster.

When upstream river-flow data is unavailable, however, the task becomes considerably more difficult. Officials are forced to rely on estimates, indirect information, and alternative sources that may not provide the same level of accuracy or timeliness. As a result, forecasts become less reliable and the window available for emergency action becomes shorter. For communities living along Pakistan’s rivers, this uncertainty can have serious consequences.

The problem is particularly concerning as climate change continues to produce more frequent and intense extreme weather events. Heavy monsoon rains, sudden flooding, glacial melt, and unpredictable weather patterns are increasing the risks faced by communities in vulnerable areas. In such an environment, the availability of accurate and timely hydrological information is not simply a technical matter. It is a critical component of public safety.

That any country would withhold information capable of helping protect downstream populations for political leverage is deeply regrettable. The humanitarian consequences of such a policy can be considerable, particularly in a region where millions of people live along river systems that cross national borders.

Yet while Pakistan must continue to highlight the risks created by the withholding of upstream data, it must also confront its own shortcomings in flood management. The devastating floods of recent years have exposed persistent weaknesses in the country’s disaster-preparedness systems. Early-warning mechanisms remain inadequate in many areas, coordination between government departments is often weak, and land-use planning has failed to prevent construction and settlement in vulnerable floodplains.

The unchecked encroachment of riverbeds and flood-prone areas has further increased the risks faced by communities. In many cases, development has taken place without adequate consideration of natural drainage patterns or the potential movement of floodwaters. Repeated disasters have produced repeated promises of reform. Yet many of the underlying weaknesses remain unresolved.

This is why the provincial authorities’ decision to adopt a more proactive approach this year is encouraging. Preparing for a worst-case scenario, strengthening vulnerable points, improving emergency coordination, and taking precautionary measures can help reduce the risks faced by communities if water levels rise unexpectedly.

When information is incomplete, caution is justified. However, emergency preparedness cannot become a substitute for a comprehensive and modern flood-management system. Preparing for the worst each year is necessary only because Pakistan remains insufficiently equipped to predict and manage extreme weather events.

The country needs sustained investment in modern forecasting technology, weather monitoring, hydrological data collection, satellite-based surveillance, and real-time communication systems. Flood warnings must reach vulnerable communities quickly and in a form they can understand and act upon. Flood defences also require greater attention. Embankments, barrages, drainage systems, reservoirs, and protective infrastructure must be properly maintained and strengthened where necessary. At the same time, land-use policies must prevent further encroachment into areas that naturally serve as floodplains.

Disaster management also requires better coordination. Federal and provincial authorities, district administrations, rescue services, meteorological agencies, irrigation departments, and local communities must be able to operate through clearly defined systems before and during an emergency. The experience of recent floods has shown that the scale of damage depends not only on the intensity of rainfall or river flows. It is also determined by the quality of preparation.

A powerful flood may be unavoidable. The scale of its human impact is not always inevitable. Pakistan must therefore pursue two objectives simultaneously. It should continue to highlight the risks created by the withholding of upstream river-flow information and demand greater transparency and cooperation on matters affecting the safety of downstream populations. At the same time, it must strengthen its own capacity to manage floods under conditions of uncertainty.

The absence of reliable upstream data makes preparation more difficult, but it cannot become an excuse for failing to improve domestic systems. Pakistan must develop forecasting mechanisms capable of drawing on multiple sources of information and must ensure that authorities can respond effectively even when critical data is unavailable.

Climate change makes this task increasingly urgent. Extreme weather events are becoming more unpredictable, and traditional assumptions about rainfall and river flows are becoming less reliable. The country cannot continue relying primarily on emergency responses after disasters occur. The decision to prepare for high floods despite currently normal conditions is therefore a sensible response to uncertainty. But it should also serve as a reminder of the larger challenge facing Pakistan.

The country needs stronger flood defences, better forecasting systems, improved land-use planning, more effective institutional coordination, and greater investment in disaster resilience. Protecting lives and livelihoods requires preparation long before floodwaters arrive.

Pakistan should continue to expose the humanitarian consequences of withholding vital upstream river-flow data. But it must also ensure that its own flood-management weaknesses do not compound the dangers created by external uncertainty.

In an era of increasingly severe climate-related disasters, preparing for the worst is prudent. Building a system capable of preventing the worst consequences is essential.