Pakistan is witnessing a population growth rate declared the highest globally and regionally, with projections indicating a doubling by 2050. The latest reports highlight significant demographic shifts, including a notable rural-to-urban migration and a young population predominantly under the age of 40. These trends underscore the immense challenges posed to economic planning and resource allocation. As the country grapples with burgeoning urban centers and disparities in education and gender ratios, comprehensive policy interventions are urgently needed to navigate the complex demographic landscape.

Pakistan’s population growth rate, now declared the highest globally and regionally, is anticipated to double by 2050, according to the latest report from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). The report emphasizes a significant population surge observed in 2023, following the 2017 census. It underscores that at the current rate, Pakistan’s population could reach an astronomical figure by mid-century. Key findings reveal demographic intricacies, including a diverse populace of Afghanis, Bengalis, Chinese, and other nationalities totaling over 21 million, along with notable religious diversity.

Education remains a critical concern, with over 25 million children aged 5 to 16 out of school nationwide, highlighting challenges in educational access. The report also notes a considerable portion of the population living with disabilities. Despite advances in literacy, the report highlights disparities with a 61% national literacy rate, showing significant gaps between male (68%) and female (53%) literacy levels.

Provincial breakdowns showcase disparities in educational access, with millions of children out of school in Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan, stressing the necessity for targeted educational reforms nationwide.

A pivotal UN report places Pakistan, with its current population exceeding 245 million, among countries whose population is expected to increase through 2054 and potentially peak in the latter half of the century. According to projections in the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, Pakistan will reach its peak population of 404.68 million in 2092. The report indicates that Pakistan’s population will surpass that of Indonesia in 2048, reaching 331.29 million. Between 1998 and 2017, Pakistan’s average population growth rate was 2.40%, equating to an annual increase of approximately 5.28 million people. Pakistan has one of the highest birth rates, with 22 births per 1,000 people. “Very few women in Pakistan use any form of birth control, and the burgeoning population can strain water and sanitation systems, lead to massive unemployment, and overwhelm health and education systems,” it warns.

The findings of the 2023 population census, while expected, confirm the alarming trends in the country’s population growth across various metrics. However, the predictability of these results does not diminish the severity of the situation, necessitating urgent and comprehensive policy interventions to address the demographic challenges that have directly contributed to and exacerbated the nation’s numerous economic issues.

The overarching reality revealed by the census is of a nation teetering on the edge, with the population having surged from 207.68 million in 2017 to 241.49 million in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 2.55%. If this rate persists, Pakistan’s population will double by 2050. Not only is Pakistan’s population growth rate the highest in the region, but only 27 countries worldwide have higher growth rates.

Additionally, approximately 79% of the population is under the age of 40, accompanied by significant rural-to-urban migration. Urban centers have experienced a substantial growth rate of 3.67% compared to 1.88% in rural areas. Notably, the number of cities with populations of at least 500,000 has risen from 14 to 22 since 2017. The rapid population growth has underscored the immense challenge it poses to effective economic planning.

How can our economic managers begin to devise strategies for such an unpredictable and escalating situation to ensure that our resource base aligns with a rapidly expanding population, infrastructure needs are met promptly, and basic indicators related to education, health, housing, food supply, and employment opportunities keep pace with the demands of a swiftly growing populace?

A population growth rate of 2.55% indicates that the economy needs to grow at a similar rate just to meet the needs of the current population base. With the country teetering from one economic crisis to another, achieving economic growth commensurate with the population growth rate is a formidable challenge.

Furthermore, a youthful population concentrated in densely populated urban spaces places additional strain on urban infrastructure and services, leading to overcrowding and a diminished quality of life. While this largely young populace has the potential to provide a significant demographic dividend through increased labor force participation and productivity, the challenge lies in ensuring sufficient investments in education, healthcare, and job creation amidst unplanned population growth. This misalignment between resources and population growth threatens to turn a potential demographic dividend into a population time bomb, which, if it explodes, could lead to severe social and economic consequences.

Another concerning finding is an imbalanced gender ratio of 1.06, with the total number of males at 124.32 million compared to 117.15 million females. This disparity can be attributed to adverse health outcomes for females, such as higher rates of malnutrition and maternal mortality, as well as a systemic preference for males in terms of access to better food and healthcare resources. This gender imbalance also underscores how women’s contributions to the economy remain underutilized. Unlocking our full economic potential entails addressing this imbalance.

It is evident that the initiation of a nationwide family planning and population control program on an urgent basis has become imperative. From rapidly expanding reproductive health and family planning services to incentivizing smaller families and transforming societal attitudes that favor large family sizes, a comprehensive set of measures is needed to bring the crisis under control. Apart from policymakers, society at large must also recognize the obstacles uncontrolled population growth poses to economic progress.

The rapid population growth in Pakistan presents a formidable challenge to economic planning and sustainable development. The significant demographic shifts, coupled with the youthful population and urban migration, exert tremendous pressure on infrastructure, education, and healthcare systems. Addressing these challenges requires urgent and comprehensive measures, including nationwide family planning programs, investments in education and healthcare, and societal changes to support smaller family norms. The gender imbalance further complicates the situation, highlighting the need to enhance women’s contributions to the economy. Only through coordinated efforts by policymakers and society can Pakistan hope to transform its demographic challenges into opportunities for sustainable growth and development.