As the situation currently stands in Pakistan, national elections are expected to take place in October. Delaying them would not only be unconstitutional but also exacerbate the existing political, economic, and social turmoil. Undeniably, according to official and private national and international surveys of Pakistan’s political landscape, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and its chairman, Imran Khan, are by far the most popular party and political leader in the country. However, the PTI and Imran Khan face a challenge following the May 9 violence in the country.

It appears that all efforts, both legal and extra-legal, are being taken and will continue to be taken by the 13-party ruling alliance to diminish the PTI’s influence and prevent it from securing a majority in the upcoming elections. If the PTI is cornered by the ruling alliance and the powers-that-be, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) or Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) may have a chance to form a government. However, this would only be possible with substantial support from the state and its vast resources, even if the people do not vote for them.

Determining which party, the PML-N or the PPP, will form the next government is a complex question. On the ground, the PML-N appears stronger than the PPP due to its extensive support base in the largest and politically crucial Punjab province. Punjab alone accounts for approximately 140 National Assembly seats, roughly equivalent to the combined seats of the other three provinces: Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Balochistan. Additionally, the PML-N traditionally secures a significant number of votes and seats in the important Hazara division of KP. However, the PML-N lacks any political constituency in Sindh and the smaller Balochistan province. Even if the PML-N sweeps Punjab and Hazara division in KP (which would be extremely challenging due to the PTI’s popularity), it would still require the support of other parties such as the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Awami National Party (ANP), Balochistan National Party (BNP-Mengal), Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F), and Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) to form a government. These parties would be willing to support the PML-N, but the final outcome would depend on the number of seats each party secures in the elections.

On the other hand, the PPP holds a strong position in rural Sindh but may face a tough challenge from the MQM in urban Sindh. Moreover, the PPP lacks a support base in Punjab, the largest province. Realistically, the party stands little chance of winning more than 10 seats out of the approximately 140 National Assembly seats in Punjab. Similarly, the PTI’s immense popularity in KP makes it unlikely for the PPP to win more than 10 seats there. If the PPP intends to form a government, widespread election rigging in Punjab, KP, and Karachi would be necessary, along with forging an alliance with the MQM, ANP, BNP-Mengal, PkMAP, and JUI-F. Although these parties may prefer an alliance with the PML-N, they would align with the PPP if necessary, as their primary goal is to attain power, which the PPP would be more than willing to distribute among them.

The role of the newly formed King’s party, Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP), led by former PTI leader-turned-renegade Jehangir Khan Tareen, will become critical in determining the dynamics of the government. However, at present, the IPP does not seem to have a realistic chance of winning a significant number of seats.

Once either the PML-N or the PPP forms the government, the question arises: Will they have viable solutions for Pakistan’s key issues, and what kind of relationship and role do they envision for the establishment? If the PML-N forms the government, it is likely that the currently convicted former three-time prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who is living as an absconder in London, may return to lead the party’s government. However, despite many issues they may have, the powers-that-be would prefer not to see him become prime minister. Instead, they would favor the current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif making a comeback. Nawaz Sharif, however, will strive to personally lead the government, and if that is not possible, his daughter Mariam Nawaz is expected to assume the role of prime minister. In the absence of both options, any of Nawaz Sharif’s two politically uninvolved sons could become prime minister, with Nawaz Sharif exercising significant control. Considering Nawaz Sharif’s track record, a PML-N government would likely clash with the establishment, as he seeks to consolidate power and make substantial changes in the lives of the majority of Pakistanis. Additionally, he aims to reclaim the party’s lost constituency and political influence, especially in Punjab, while expanding its reach in other provinces. Political stability would be elusive in such a scenario unless the PML-N extends an olive branch to the PTI and Imran Khan.

In the event that the PPP forms the next government, with Bilawal Bhutto as the most likely prime minister, the party would endeavor to garner support from the business community, traditionally aligned with the PML-N, in order to address the country’s economic challenges. However, the PPP has inherent capacity issues and corruption within its ranks, which may hinder its ability to provide robust solutions to national issues. The PPP would also aim to maintain cordial relations with the establishment. However, this would require significant compromises on the part of the PPP, potentially diminishing its prospects for achieving political and economic stability in the country.

In conclusion, the upcoming national elections in Pakistan will play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s political landscape and government formation. While the PTI currently enjoys significant popularity, challenges lie ahead as efforts are made to curtail its influence. The potential government formation by either the PML-N or the PPP poses its own set of complexities and hurdles, with regional support and alliance-building playing crucial roles. Ultimately, the chosen party’s ability to address key issues and establish a productive relationship with the establishment will greatly impact Pakistan’s political and economic trajectory in the coming years.