The Middle East war is now about two weeks but there are no signs that it is going the way the US had envisioned. The Iranians are fighting back bravely with a grit and determination that has taken the world by surprise.
The Israel-US coalition claims to have decimated Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile production and launch capabilities as well as its command and control systems. No doubt, the Israel-US coalition controls the skies over most of the country, with the latter’s air/missile defences almost completely knocked out. But, despite these losses, Iran continues to launch both drones and missiles at targets in Israel as well as at US military facilities across the Gulf. It seems carpet bombing by US and Israeli war planes has not much affected the functioning of Iran’s 12 autonomous military-aerospace commands.
By all accounts, Iran continues to maintain the operational tempo of the war. A proof of this is that a few days ago Iran successfully executed a drone attack on Israel’s Haifa refinery complex, which resulted in large fires and forced the suspension of operations at one of the country’s most important energy facilities. According to Iranian officials, the strike was in retaliation for coalition attacks on oil depots near Tehran.
The dynamics of war seems to be changing with time. While Iran has sustained its steady stream of strikes on infrastructure with strategic military and economic value inside Israel, particularly energy facilities, the US has gradually slowed down the pace of its own operations. Intelligence reports show that US airstrikes have declined sharply over the past week, with Israel now conducting several times more attacks than previously. One reason for this is said to be the increasing strain on US weapons stockpiles. At the same time, due to the rising financial and economic costs of the war, domestic political pressure on Trump is increasing with rallies in major US cities demanding an end to the war.
On the other hand, Israel is adamant on maintaining military pressure on Iran and has gradually expanded the scope of its war operations. In this context, it is interesting to note that President Donald Trump a few days ago demanded an “unconditional surrender” by the Islamic Republic. But within hours, President Masoud Pezeshkian of the beleaguered nation retorted: “they will take their dreams of Iranian people surrendering unconditionally to their grave.” Trump did not raise the subject again.
It may be added here that a well informed group of international observers analysing the course of the war says that the war is not going America’s way. An indication of this is the number of direct hits that US assets, most notably THAAD and Patriot radars and batteries, have taken, exposing the vulnerability of Gulf allies and the Zionist state itself. It has also been reported that as the existing supplies of missiles and related material held by the US in the Middle East are near exhaustion, the US military high command is now considering to move its missile defence assets positioned in South Korea and Taiwan to the Middle East.
But there is another group of analysts which is of the view that the war is going well for the US as it has led to widespread destruction of Iranian nuclear and missile production and launch capability and that America’s ascendancy in the air means that their drones can hover over underground facilities and direct heavy bombers to targets accurately.
President Trump is totally confused about the objectives of the war. He has been widely criticised for lack of clarity about what he wants to achieve. The confusion is evident from the fact that for Trump the objectives of the war have shifted from the elimination of the nuclear programme to regime change to the destruction of Iran’s long-range missile capability. Trump talks one day about putting “boots on the ground” and two days later says that would be a “waste of time”. According to some critics, Trump’s confused state of mind has something to do with Netanyahu having in his possession some damning evidence against him from the Epstein ‘video archives’.
The war that the US has ignited has put the whole world on edge. A large number of countries are faced with the prospect of a disruption in oil supply due to the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. Oil prices have already risen by 25 per cent in a month and may breach the $125 a barrel barrier. Rising prices at the petrol pumps and their impact on the US stock markets will create their own pressure for hostilities to end.
The strait’s closure will also result in a major hit to the oil and gas and trading and tourism industry of the Gulf states. Qatar has warned that if its gas revenues continue to face disruptions, it might be forced to disinvest in the US. This will be a severe jolt to the US economy and may spell disaster for Trump’s political future.
Among other things, the war has made the Gulf states realise that in the future they will have to fend for themselves as the so-called security umbrella provided by the US did not save them from Iranian missiles and drones. This may lead to a realignment of relations between the Gulf states and Iran and a new political contract for peaceful co-existence and stability in the region.