The phase in which Pakistan has entered after a recent Supreme Court’s apt order to hold elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces within the constitutional timeframe is unprecedented. There has been a revolt by some judges of the court against the chief justice and a vitriolic attack by the ruling alliance on him, demanding his resignation and the latter’s commitment to stick to the Constitution at all cost is not only unprecedented but also decisive for the future of Pakistan.

The current crisis, created after the expulsion of former Premier Imran Khan from power in April last, was exacerbated by the dissolution of Punjab and KP legislative assemblies by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) chief ministers in January this year to force the ruling alliance hold countrywide elections. The fear within the ruling alliance of losing the two provincial governments again in the face of immense popularity of former PM Imran Khan’s PTI has reached its apex with the decision of the court to hold elections within 90 days. Thus, the country has reached an unprecedented political impasse as the 13-party ruling alliance has decided not to abide by the decision of the court. In fact, the government is running from holding elections as the writing of its defeat at the hands of the PTI is very much on the wall for it. Instead, the ruling alliance, spearheaded by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islami-Fazl (JUI-F), wants not only to escape elections in Punjab and KP but also for the National Assembly, which constitutionally ought to be held by October this year after the completion of a five-year tenure of the current National Assembly in August. More concerning is the fact that the PML-N and JUI-F want to extend the tenure of the current National Assembly and thus their rule by one year by imposing an emergency in the country after invoking some constitutional provisions. However, President Arif Alvi, who was elected as the head of state by the PTI in 2018, and the Supreme Court, in particular Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, are the biggest hurdles to the unconstitutional and vested interest of the ruling alliance. But both will complete their respective tenures in September this year and the ruling alliance is waiting for it to happen to implement its unconstitutional agenda.

At the same time, the establishment has been supportive of the ruling alliance beyond constitutional requirements for reasons best known to it despite the fact that the performance of the PM Shehbaz Sharif-led ruling alliance to sustain decent economic growth of around six percent at the time of the ouster of the PTI government in April 2022 has been pathetic. Instead, the alliance, over the last one year of its rule, has pushed the country to unprecedented inflation and economic crisis. This is the crux of the ongoing political crisis which needs a completely unorthodox approach to address, otherwise the future of Pakistan and democracy in the country is very bleak.

It is important to note that the ruling alliance, which claimed to have joined hands and brought down the previous government of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) through a successful no-confidence move in the National Assembly only to provide ‘relief’ to the masses when they were facing economic hardships, instead of providing any relief has made their lives extremely miserable. The government has increased the prices of fuel many times in its one-year tenure with petroleum prices crossing over Rs270/litre, something unprecedented with a whopping increase of Rs120/litre in a year. More importantly, the increase in the prices of edible oil of around Rs400/litre from around Rs200/litre at the end of the PTI government in a year by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government suggests that the regime does not have any plan to put the economy on track which it has derailed.

Economic security is one of the key aspects of state-society security and cannot be seen in isolation. Therefore, in last year’s new National Security Policy of the PTI, economic security had been made the cornerstone of the overall security of the country. However, while looking at the economic governance of PM Shehbaz Sharif’s regime it appears that economic security is of least concern, cosmetic measures notwithstanding. Instead the 13-party ruling alliance is more interested in scotching financial corruption and abuse of power cases pending (in their earlier regimes) in different accountability courts and institutions against its leaders. In other words, the rule of PM Shehbaz Sharif has been completely focused on serving the vested interest of the top leadership of the ruling alliance while also enjoying the perks and privileges of power.

In this situation there does not seem any light at the end of the tunnel. In which direction the country will move or remain in a state of inertia, nobody really knows, again analyses notwithstanding. It is a situation where even analysts are in a fix on how to explain the events and forecast. However, one aspect of the current situation is quite clear that at least the ruling alliance does not have any panacea for the ills that afflict Pakistan.

The government does not have what it takes to address the key issues of economic downfall and political instability and governance, then why is it clinging to power or the powers-that-be are keeping it in power? It is quite clear that the present regime enjoys complete support of the establishment. In fact, although the previous government of the PTI had won a majority in the 2018 national elections, it could not rule singlehandedly and whatever coalition partners it got in the shape of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Pakistan Mulism League-Quaid (PML-Q), Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) and Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) for a majority of at least a dozen seats in the National Assembly, it was also managed by the establishment. While managing the ruling coalition from August 2018 to March 2022 did work to a certain extent, but it had been due to the leadership skills and personal cult following of former premier Imran Khan than any good strategy by the powers-that-be. In fact, by and large this model of managing the affairs of an elected government by the country’s establishment failed. Imran Khan has himself admitted that with a less powerless status he should not have taken the reins of the government.

So the powers-that-be must understand that if the PTI coalition government could not be effectively managed, a weak current regime also cannot be kept afloat for long. Whereas, each day it spends in power would inflict economic losses of gargantuan proportions on the country. Now it is for the powers-that-be to decide where to take the country. The best solution is a change in the political system but for it an elected representative National Assemblies and provincial assemblies must be brought to power without any further delay.