After the recent Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) protest and its violent conclusion, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi announced that Afghan nationals would not be allowed to stay in the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) without proper authorization after December 31. This announcement followed government claims that hardened criminals, including Afghan nationals, were involved in the PTI’s violent protest.

While the extent to which Afghan nationals or refugees participated in the protests remains unclear, the broader issue of Afghan nationals posing a security threat to Pakistan is widely acknowledged. Immediate steps are necessary to address this issue by facilitating the repatriation of undocumented Afghan nationals.

The government’s decision to restrict Afghan refugees from residing in Islamabad beyond December 2024 is a welcome move. However, it is important to critique the decision’s limited scope. Islamabad constitutes only a small fraction of Pakistan, whereas the presence of Afghan nationals poses a national security challenge across the country. The majority of Afghan nationals in Pakistan are concentrated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan provinces, which share borders with Afghanistan. Therefore, it is crucial to extend the policy of restricting Afghan nationals’ presence to these provinces and the rest of Pakistan. Such a measure is essential for ensuring national stability and peace.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), approximately 1.4 million registered Afghan refugees possess Pakistan-issued Proof of Registration (PoR) cards. Additionally, around 0.8 million individuals hold Afghan Citizenship Cards (ACC), and an estimated 0.6 million undocumented Afghan migrants reside in the country. Reports suggest that since the Taliban takeover in August 2021, approximately 700,000 new Afghan nationals have entered Pakistan. This brings the total number of Afghan nationals in Pakistan, excluding undocumented migrants, to over three million. For a politically and economically fragile country like Pakistan, this represents a significant security risk.

In July 2024, the federal cabinet extended the validity of PoR cards by another year, until June 30, 2025. This decision highlights ongoing policy confusion at the highest levels of government regarding how to handle the Afghan refugee crisis. However, the recent statement by Interior Minister Naqvi offers hope for greater policy clarity. Given the persistent terrorism and insecurity in KP and Balochistan, the presence of such a large Afghan population poses a critical security challenge that could soon become unmanageable.

It is important to note that Pakistan has made several attempts in recent years to repatriate Afghan refugees, but these efforts have largely failed to achieve meaningful results. For instance, last year, Pakistan granted another extension for the stay of documented Afghan nationals beyond December 2023. While proactive measures to expel undocumented Afghans are a step in the right direction, the decision to extend the stay of documented Afghans reveals significant policy inconsistencies. The lack of a comprehensive strategy to address the presence of over three million Afghan nationals underscores the need for decisive and effective action.

Since Pakistan took the key policy decision on October 3, 2023, to send back around 1.7 million officially recognized illegal Afghans living in Pakistan, more than 500,000 Afghans have reportedly returned to Afghanistan. After the deadline for voluntary returns expired on November 1, 2023, Islamabad has begun forcefully deporting Afghans. The government seems committed to this policy, which many argue should have been implemented years ago.

Regarding the extension of stay for documented Afghans registered with Pakistan’s National Database and Registration Authority (NADRA) — who hold Proof of Registration (PoR) cards — and the decision to extend the validity of these cards until June 2025, there is evident policy confusion. While it is understandable that Pakistan cannot risk abruptly deporting all Afghans—officially numbering 4.4 million, though likely much higher—a clear roadmap is needed. Pakistan should have outlined a definitive plan for the eventual repatriation of these documented Afghans, perhaps enforcing mandatory returns after six months if necessary. Unfortunately, the frequent extensions granted to legal Afghan residents have created a perception among both Pakistanis and Afghans that these deadlines are not taken seriously and will likely be extended again.

Pakistan’s decision to repatriate illegal Afghans stems from concerns over national security, as many Afghans have been implicated in terrorism and anti-state activities, including suicide attacks. While the deportation of 1.7 million illegal Afghans may reduce some security threats, it is not a comprehensive solution. Documented Afghan refugees have also been found involved in illegal activities within Pakistan.

The presence of Afghan refugees—at one point peaking at nearly 4.5 million and constituting the largest refugee population in the world—has had a profound impact on Pakistan. For nearly four decades, these refugees have enjoyed complete freedom of movement and activity within the country. This leniency has cost Pakistan dearly, leading to economic losses, the proliferation of weapons such as Kalashnikovs, the unchecked growth of madrassas, and other adverse cultural and societal effects. Successive Pakistani governments and policymakers overlooked these consequences, largely due to the perceived geopolitical advantage of maintaining a “strategic depth” in Afghanistan. This policy has since been abandoned, as noted by Sartaj Aziz, Advisor to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Foreign Affairs, who stated that Pakistan had realized the pursuit of strategic depth in Afghanistan was unattainable.

However, the enduring presence of millions of legal and illegal Afghan refugees has posed an existential threat to Pakistan’s stability. Many have reportedly become agents of enemy intelligence agencies and harbor hostility toward Pakistan. Additionally, the interactions between these refugees and anti-Pakistan elements within certain ethnic and linguistic groups in Pakistan have compounded security threats, creating a colossal challenge for the country.

In summary, while Pakistan’s recent measures to address the issue of illegal Afghan refugees are a step in the right direction, a more cohesive and long-term strategy is imperative. This includes setting firm timelines for the repatriation of documented refugees, addressing security threats holistically, and mitigating the socio-economic and cultural impacts of hosting refugees for decades.