Every state in the West is expected to face an above-normal threat of wildfire this summer, according to the latest projections, released by the National Interagency Coordination Center.

The government-run center publishes monthly reports predicting fire risk for the four months ahead, and the change since the March outlook is staggering. The agency denotes elevated risk in red on its maps, and the June forecast from March 2 showed a small swath of rouge in the Southwest. But, citing an ongoing snow drought, rapid snowmelt, and a recent unprecedented heat wave, the latest maps feature red spilling across the Southwest and into the Rockies, Pacific Northwest, and northern California.

“We’re probably not going to be in great shape this year,” said Matthew Hurteau, director of the Center for Fire Resilient Ecosystems and Society at the University of New Mexico. While it’s normal for the Southwest to experience a relatively early fire season, before the summer monsoons hit, what really stood out to him was how quickly the red moved north. “It’s really early for that.”

June typically sees snow lingering in many mountain ranges and snowmelt wetting the landscape, he said. Not this year. The latest outlook reports that the snow melt-off in the Four Corners region came “not just several weeks or months earlier than normal, but also four to six weeks earlier than the previously recorded earliest melt-off dates.” The recent heat wave also desiccated the West. Albuquerque, for example, recorded its earliest ever 90-degree reading on March 21, more than six weeks sooner than its previous earliest date, in 1947. The daily average of 73.1 degrees Las Vegas recorded in March would have broken the city’s April record.

Overall, there’s been less snowpack and higher temperatures than pretty much any winter on record. It’s a situation that climatologists have said would be virtually impossible without climate change, and the maps reflect that reality.

“It doesn’t mean that all of these areas are going to burn,” said Alastair Hayden, professor at Cornell University and a former division chief in the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. Last year, for example, the Pacific Northwest saw an above-normal risk but was largely spared. Local patterns, such as wind and precipitation, play a major role, too. “But, when I look back at the forecast, fires usually tend to be in one of these locations.”