Agricultural experts have raised urgent alarms about the detrimental impact of climate change on horticultural and crop yields. They emphasize that clinging to centuries-old seeding and irrigation practices, instead of embracing advanced technologies, will soon plunge us into severe food insecurity and a potentially irreversible water crisis.

Pakistan has reached an unparalleled landmark as its agrarian sector exports soared to an extraordinary $8 billion for the inaugural time in the fiscal year spanning from July 2023 to June 2024. Yet, the specter of climate change looms ominously, threatening not only agriculture but the very fabric of life itself. For an extensive period, Pakistan has grappled with the repercussions of climate change. The catastrophic floods from 2010 to 2014 wreaked untold devastation. Particularly, the deluge of 2010 stands as the most calamitous disaster in Pakistan’s chronicles, inflicting a $10 billion economic loss and exacerbating food insecurity by 10%. Despite climate change’s widespread destruction, the agricultural sector endures as one of the most grievously afflicted. Pakistan’s geographical location predisposes it to a precipitous decline in crop productivity.

Research indicates that climate change will slash agricultural productivity in Pakistan by 8-10% by 2040, with wheat emerging as a principal casualty. Another forecast anticipates that wheat and rice crops will bear the brunt of climate change’s adverse impacts in the ensuing years, predicting a 6% reduction in wheat yield and a 15-18% decline in Basmati rice yield across the nation, save for the northern regions.

The Global Change Impact Study Centre further predicts that climate change is causing crop seasons to contract and shift, portending severe repercussions for future crop productivity. Sea encroachment presents an additional dilemma, swallowing up fertile lands. Badin, in particular, has borne the worst impact, with hundreds of acres of productive terrain lost to the encroaching sea. It is also foreseen that climate change will usher in novel diseases, posing fresh challenges to the agricultural sector.

In light of this, the ramifications of inaction are exorbitant. As an agrarian nation, Pakistan’s economy is inextricably linked to agriculture, which supports millions of livelihoods and supplies inexpensive raw materials for key industries such as textiles and leather. Most critically, its contribution to food security is both invaluable and irreplaceable.

Currently, Pakistan contends with the daunting challenge of food insecurity, with approximately 58% of its populace affected. Envision a scenario where the population continues to swell while food production dwindles—an alarming and harrowing prospect. In this context, Pakistan must urgently implement measures to avert disaster. Initially, it is imperative to map vulnerabilities across agro-ecological zones, as each zone possesses distinct dynamics.

Agricultural experts have sounded the alarm with utmost urgency, warning that climate change is severely impacting horticultural and crop yields. If centuries-old seeding and irrigation practices are not replaced with advanced technologies immediately, we will soon confront “serious food insecurity” and a potentially irreversible water crisis.

A mere two-degree increase in temperature can slash agricultural output by 20%, a scenario that, without preemptive planning, necessitates costly, last-minute imports with no assurance of sufficient supply.

This situation spells doom for small farmers, who will be crushed, and even large-scale farmers will incur substantial losses. The government’s failure to declare an agriculture emergency and enforce the widespread adoption of modern seeding and irrigation technologies exacerbates this crisis.

Many observers have long advocated for such measures, even before climate change was recognized as a critical issue. Yet, no government, irrespective of political affiliation, has effectively addressed this need. Agriculture, purportedly Pakistan’s natural strength, comparative advantage, largest employment sector, and the backbone for countless families, has deteriorated from a net exporter to a chronic importer. This decline is largely due to the persistence of archaic methods, despite the global shift to innovative practices driven by climate change.

Research by the World Resources Institute indicates that Pakistan’s agricultural output could plummet by 50% from 2015 to 2050 due to climate change and its effects on crop yields. Changing weather patterns, particularly shifts in summer and winter rainfalls, are poised to inflict unprecedented damage.

Compounding this issue is our reluctance to embrace modern technology, leading to a drastic reduction in water availability. Pakistan, once among the most water-abundant nations, is now one of the most water-scarce.

Despite the establishment of research centers and a climate change ministry, experts and stakeholders lament the ineffectiveness of these institutions in aiding farmers. The argument that farmers are resistant to change is no longer acceptable. We must take a leaf out of China’s book, where proactive measures and advanced technologies have revolutionized the agricultural sector.

This should serve as the final wake-up call for the government. The collapse of the agricultural sector, combined with a water crisis, will trigger economic, social, and political turmoil that could cripple the nation. Ignoring this warning signifies a profound failure to grasp the severity of the situation.