Amid shifting global economic crosswinds and domestic recalibrations, Pakistan’s blueprint for FY2025–26 presents a reinvigorated vision of recovery, resilience, and reform.
Spearheaded by the “Uraan Pakistan” initiative and embedded within the broader contours of the National Economic Transformation Plan, the government charts a forward-looking roadmap targeting sectoral resurgence—from agriculture to industry and services. With measured optimism, the state intends to leverage macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and investment-driven momentum to navigate the complexities of inflation control, food security, and sustainable development.
In a recalibrated fiscal tableau for 2025–26, Pakistan’s external ledger is poised to pivot from a current account surplus of $1.8 billion—seen in the waning financial cycle—to a projected deficit of $2.12 billion. Concurrently, consumer price inflation, tethered to the CPI index, is envisaged to hover around 7.5 percent for the impending year.
Sanctioned by the National Economic Council under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s stewardship and unveiled in tandem with the federal budget, the Annual Plan offers a sanguine macroeconomic forecast. It charts an ambitious GDP expansion trajectory of 4.2 percent, built upon sector-wide resurgence and revitalisation.
This anticipated acceleration in economic tempo is moored in persistent macro-fiscal recalibration and the flagship initiative ‘Uraan Pakistan.’ Key enablers include fiscal stringency, recalibrated interest benchmarks, regulatory overhauls, and resurgent investor morale—all converging to catalyse a climate conducive to economic buoyancy. Exports are envisioned to ascend to $35.3 billion in FY2025-26, in alignment with the strategic contours of the National Economic Transformation Plan 2024-29. Within the contours of its “5Es Framework,” the administration advances an export-anchored development paradigm—invigorating strategic verticals such as agronomy, digital technology, industrial fabrication, mineral exploitation, service delivery, and both marine-based and imaginative economies. Nonetheless, the textile complex retains its traditional preeminence within the export matrix.
In tandem, diaspora remittances are forecasted to continue their upward arc, culminating in a projected inflow of $39.4 billion. This increment is anticipated through diversified stratagems: fortifying formal transfer conduits, penetrating untapped European and ascendant employment geographies, augmenting vocational and linguistic proficiency, facilitating outbound labour mobility, and elevating the proportion of skilled expatriates from 44% to 50% via synergistic efforts with TVET bodies and academic institutions. Meanwhile, tech-sector exports are set to perpetuate their double-digit ascent, forecasted to breach the $5 billion mark—buoyed by policies under the 5Es ethos.
Agricultural resurgence is also on the horizon, contingent upon the prompt provisioning of critical inputs, the resolution of chronic energy disruptions, and systematic enhancements in crop yield efficacy.
The consolidation of external sector steadiness, buoyed remittance inflows, and steadfast adherence to IMF conditionalities will serve as lynchpins for the realization of the envisaged growth metrics. Complementary vectors—political tranquillity, robust institutional stewardship, favourable international trade winds, moderated global commodity valuations, and persistent foreign appetite for Pakistani goods—remain instrumental in actualising these aspirations.
In the fiscal arc of 2025–26, Pakistan’s agrarian realm is charted for a 4.5% expansion, led by a substantial resurgence in major crops, forecasted to surge by 6.7%—a sharp pivot from the contraction experienced in the preceding year. Minor crops, riding on the winds of benevolent climate, climate-adaptive cultivation, and productivity-oriented PSDP mechanisms, are anticipated to rise by 3.5%.
Policy scaffolding is actively facilitating the punctual supply of premium-grade seeds, agro-nutrients, and mechanised tools, with provincial machineries lending auxiliary heft to this strategy. The livestock domain is envisaged to clock in a 4.2% growth rhythm, while forestry and aquaculture sectors are on track to ascend by 3.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Collectively, these initiatives under the flagship ‘Uraan Pakistan’ blueprint aim to fortify the nation’s food buffer and tether the inflationary tide.
On the industrial frontier, a projected elevation of 4.3% is on the cards. Mining and quarrying activities are anticipated to edge forward by 3.0%, while the manufacturing engine is primed for a 4.7% lift. Within this industrial tapestry, large-scale manufacturing (LSM) is poised to rebound with a 3.5% uptick—propelled by a favourable statistical base, rejuvenated energy supplies, moderated lending rates, exchange rate poise, and a softening global commodities spectrum.
Momentum is likewise expected to persist across small and medium enterprises, infrastructure utilities, the construction sector, and ancillary services like slaughtering. Structural recalibrations under the National Economic Transformation Plan, alongside strategic financial infusion from the SIFC, are set to galvanise industrial productivity further.
The service economy is projected to chart a 4.0% growth course. This trajectory is buoyed by anticipated recoveries in agriculture and manufacturing, which are expected to amplify the pulse of wholesale-retail commerce, logistics, warehousing, and telecoms. Building upon its demonstrated endurance through FY2024-25, the services sector is poised to maintain its growth continuum.
Aggregate investment is forecasted to climb from 13.8% of GDP in FY2024-25 to 14.7% in FY2025-26—a reflection of rekindled economic dynamism, a more inviting commercial environment, and reinforced political constancy. Fixed investment, in tandem, is estimated to ascend from 12% to 13% of GDP, while national savings are set to reach 14.3%.
Looking outward, the administration aims to harness latent potential in regional synergies, digital commerce, and verdant economic models to bolster the external flank. Strategic imperatives are concentrated on sharpening export competitiveness, deepening regional integration, diversifying trade geographies, and scaling the digital trade frontier.
FY2025–26 emerges as a year of calibrated ambition for Pakistan’s economy—grounded in pragmatic policy interventions and bold sectoral pivots. By synchronising climate-smart agriculture, revitalised industrial output, and a digitally integrated services landscape, the government seeks not only to expand economic volume but to rewire its foundational mechanisms. Through enhanced regional collaboration, strategic diversification, and unwavering structural reforms, the nation aspires to not just weather the fiscal tides—but to soar steadily above them.