In a new report, the World Bank has warned that Pakistan is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with extreme events frequently resulting in extensive damage to the economy. The report entitled “Second Resilient Institutions for Sustainable Economy: Climate Change Technical Note” says that about 50 million people are residing in areas which are at risk of 4-5 per cent decline in quality of life by 2030. Climatic shocks have caused significant loss of life, economic damage, and reversal of development gains over the last 15 years.

Ranked 5th most vulnerable country to climate change on the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan faces countless pressing environmental issues that affect its economy and people. In recent years, several Pakistani cities have experienced alarming levels of air pollution. According to data from the World Air Quality Index (AQI), Lahore, Faisalabad, and Karachi are consistently ranked among the most polluted cities in the country. While these cities frequently exceed the World Health Organization’s (WHO) air quality guidelines, Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) data suggests that all of Pakistan’s 238 million people live in areas where the annual average particulate pollution level exceeds the WHO guideline, while 98.3% of the population lived in places where air pollution exceeds the country’s own safety standards.

In IQAir’s 2022 ranking of the world’s most polluted countries and regions, Pakistan ranked third, preceded only by Chad and Iraq. In terms of cities, most of the world’s 50 most polluted cities in 2022 were located in India and Pakistan. In that year, Pakistan’s capital city Lahore, home to more than 11 million people, was also named the world’s most polluted city, and it continues to be among the most polluted urban centres today.

Pakistan produces less than 1% of the world’s carbon footprint yet is suffering the biggest consequences of climate change. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan has lost nearly ten thousand lives and suffered economic losses worth $3.8 billion due to climate change throughout the years 1999 to 2018. Changing seasonal weather patterns, rising temperatures, variability of monsoons and melting of glaciers in the north — compounded with recurrent extreme weather events and natural disasters — are just some of the effects of climate change that Pakistan has been forced to contend with in recent years.

It is a recorded fact that since 2010 the increased intensity and frequency of floods alone has caused substantial physical damage, affecting more than 30 million people, with damages and losses exceeding $14 billion. What is more, the country is also increasingly exposed to various other climatic hazards, such as droughts, heat-waves and cyclones.

These climatic shocks negatively impact household welfare, and retard human capital formation. Unfortunately, these impacts are projected to escalate, with forecasts suggesting that climate-related events, environmental degradation, and air pollution may cause Pakistan’s GDP to shrink by 18-20% by 2050. This alarming forecast underlines the need to address climate change and mitigate its effects on people and their livelihoods on an emergent basis. Even though Pakistan is not among the primary contributors to climate change, confronting its fallout is the need of the hour. In this context, special attention needs to be given to combat pressing local issues like air pollution and smog which have caused much havoc in recent years.

A survey was recently conducted to ascertain the views of common people on how best to grapple with the challenge of climate change. The results of the survey showed that most people, regardless of gender or education level, are highly concerned about the impact of climate change on children, with over 80 percent expressing serious apprehension about the future shape of things. A crucial insight emerging from the survey findings for policymakers is that economic aspects are the most important factor behind people’s concern about climate change. To this end, policymakers need to focus on offering economic incentives to encourage people’s active participation in climate action.

On its part, the World Bank has recommended two main actions to mitigate the negative impact of vagaries of weather. The first action relates to reducing the fiscal cost of power subsidies so that more people can be covered within the given budget. It may be noted here that Pakistan’s Country Climate and Development Report has identified that significant inefficiencies across the energy sector are a big complicating factor in accelerating climate action. These inefficiencies are detrimental to the reliability of electricity and gas supplies and also generate large fiscal deficits that accumulate into high levels of power sector debt, known as the “circular debt”.

In response to the climate crisis, Pakistan needs to pursue climate-adaptive approaches more vigorously. In this regard it is important to recognize the important role women can play in the fight against climate change as powerful agents of change in their communities. Experts advocate an intersectional approach to programs that tackle climate change — thus, prioritizing those most impacted by creating livelihood opportunities that sustain the adoption of climate-adaptive solutions.

Pakistan is at a tipping point in its battle against the climate crisis. At this critical juncture the government must act quickly to avoid what looks like an irreversible disaster. The global community too must make every effort to help countries like Pakistan which are experiencing the crippling consequences of climate change.