According to the recent statement by a World Bank official, Pakistan faces a serious water crisis that could escalate into conflicts over resources if urgent measures are not taken to remedy the situation.
In various studies recently, experts have warned against the alarming rate of groundwater depletion and pointed out that Pakistan could exhaust its groundwater reserves by 2030 and surface water by 2037 due to unchecked agricultural usage.
Pakistan ranks 14 among the 17 ‘extremely high water risk’ countries of the world, a list that includes hot and dry countries like Saudi Arabia. Over 80 percent of the total population in the country faces ‘severe water scarcity’ for at least one month of the year. In addition to surface water, Pakistan’s groundwater resources—the last resort of water supply—are severely overdrawn, mainly to supply water for irrigation. Moreover, only two-thirds of available water is being utilised while one-third of the water is either lost or discharged into the sea.
Over the last few decades, Pakistan has drastically changed from being a water abundant country to a water-stressed country. With 2.8 percent of the global population, Pakistan accounts for 0.5 percent of global renewable water resources. Worldwide, the country ranks 36th in total renewable water resources compared to India’s rank at 8th and Bangladesh’s at 12th.
Pakistan ranks 160th in the ratio of water withdrawals to water resources (in 2017), performing better than 18 countries only. Agriculture is the largest water consumer, accounting for 94 percent of annual water withdrawals followed by households (5.3 percent) and industry (including power generation) (0.8 percent).
The country’s dependence on a single river system is extremely risky: the Indus river system accounts for 95.8 percent of the total renewable water resources of Pakistan. Moreover, the water originating from outside of Pakistan accounts for over three-fourths (78 percent) of total water resources of the country, making it vulnerable. The Indus Basin aquifer has been ranked as the 2nd most over-stressed underground water reserve in the world. The strain on groundwater is very disturbing. Over 60 percent of irrigation, 70 percent of drinking water and 100 percent of the industry in the country depend on it.
Pakistani cities are already facing problems of erratic supply of piped water and unsafe and declining levels of groundwater. Only 36 percent of the population has access to safe drinking water. No doubt, excessive and unregulated water usage is pushing Pakistan toward a crisis. If the situation persists, industries, urban centers, and the agricultural sector will soon fight for limited water resources, leading to conflicts. By 2030, any additional water extraction will effectively take away supplies meant for other users, exacerbating tensions.
As we can see, signs of this crisis are already emerging in Sindh, where growing water scarcity has led to local disputes and the provincial leaders have objected to building new canals in Punjab that will divert water from the Indus river. Pakistan’ water woes have been compounded in recent years by more frequent extreme weather events, including floods, droughts, and rising sea levels, which pose significant risks to coastal regions in Sindh and Balochistan.
Pakistan’s water scarcity problem is not new. Yet successive governments have not treated the issue seriously. The result is a rapidly depleting water table, inefficient irrigation systems, and an over-reliance on an aging canal network. In Punjab, for instance, nearly 40pc of water is lost in community watercourses due to poor maintenance and aging infrastructure, as reported by the On-Farm Water Management (OFWM) programme. Moreover, unlined watercourses within the Indus Basin experience losses ranging from 64pc to 68pc due to seepage, spillage, and side leakage.
Over the years the Indus Water Treaty has become a source of vulnerability as upstream activities in India increasingly impact downstream flow. But, instead of pursuing proactive diplomacy or investing in modern water management technologies, our leaders have taken refuge behind rhetorical grandstanding. The failure to adapt to changing climatic patterns and geopolitical realities has left Pakistan exposed to severe water insecurity.
There is tell-tale evidence of the worsening water crisis facing us. In urban centers, water shortages have led to the proliferation of tanker mafias who charge exorbitant rates for what is a basic human right. In rural areas, farmers are struggling to irrigate their fields, leading to declining agricultural productivity and rising food insecurity.
As temperatures soar and glaciers melt, the situation will further worsen in the coming days. The government must act before the water crisis reaches the point of no return. The government must invest in modern water conservation technologies and infrastructure. This includes building new reservoirs, repairing the existing canal system, and promoting water-efficient agricultural practices. Drip irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and wastewater recycling must be incentivised and widely adopted. Also, there is an urgent need for comprehensive water governance reforms. The current fragmented and inefficient management structure must be streamlined, with clear accountability mechanisms in place. Water pricing must be rationalised to discourage wastage while ensuring affordability for the poor. Needless to say, water security is closely linked to national security which we can ignore at our own peril.