Introduction:

Pakistan’s struggle with food security is a troubling reflection of the broader global crisis. Over the past two decades, the country has witnessed a significant decline in its ability to ensure food for its population, as highlighted by the Global Hunger Index. Despite having vast agricultural potential, Pakistan finds itself increasingly reliant on imports to meet basic food needs, while domestic challenges, including climate change and urban migration, further strain its agricultural output.

The World Bank has raised alarms over the worsening food security situation in parts of Pakistan. In a recent analysis, it highlighted that among 43 rural districts across Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Balochistan—many of which were severely affected by the 2022 floods—acute food insecurity is projected to escalate from 29% to 32% during the second and third quarters of FY24.

The report also indicated that while food inflation remained high throughout the first half of FY24, it showed only a marginal increase. During the first half of FY23, food inflation averaged 30.7% in urban areas and 33.5% in rural regions. This rose to 33.4% and 34.0% in urban and rural areas, respectively, in the first half of FY24. The relatively smaller increase was partly attributed to a higher yield of domestically produced food items and a decline in global food prices.

Moreover, the World Bank warned that the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, combined with rising transportation costs, could lead to a rise in out-of-school children and delayed medical treatments, particularly among the most vulnerable families. It further noted that transportation costs have risen more sharply in rural areas, thus increasing the cost of accessing markets, schools, and healthcare, especially for the rural poor.

The report also highlighted that the poverty headcount is expected to remain unchanged at FY23 levels. While the poor and vulnerable may have seen some benefits from the increase in agricultural output in the first quarter of FY24, these gains were largely negated by persistent high inflation and limited wage growth in other sectors that employ a significant portion of the poor, such as construction, trade, and transportation, where wages for daily laborers increased by only 5% in nominal terms during the first half of FY24.

The World Bank further observed that chronic poor air quality and smog during the autumn and winter months continued to pose a significant public health challenge, affecting 71% of the population and having widespread adverse impacts on health outcomes.

In the absence of major and sustained economic reforms, the report noted that Pakistan is likely to continue grappling with foreign exchange liquidity issues due to the ongoing trade deficit and limited access to external financing, particularly from the private sector.

According to the World Health Organization, 122 million more people have become food insecure since 2019, with 46 million added in the past year alone. The 2023 edition of the Global Report on Food Crises echoes this trend, showing a consistent increase in the number of people facing acute food shortages, endangering their lives for the fourth consecutive year.

Regrettably, Pakistan’s food security crisis reflects a broader global trend of worsening conditions. According to the Global Hunger Index (GHI), Pakistan has seen a steady decline in food security over the past two decades, with its score dropping from 36.8 in 2000 to 26.1 in 2022.

Statistics from the World Food Programme underscore this dire situation, showing that 36.9% of the population is food insecure, with 18.3% facing severe food crises. The persistent issue of food inflation, driven by the limited availability of non-indigenous products, exacerbates this rising insecurity.

Despite having vast expanses of uncultivated land, Pakistan has failed to harness its agricultural potential, leaving a significant gap in meeting domestic food demands. This shortfall is primarily due to the shrinking of agricultural land caused by climate change, an increasing population, and the migration of labor from rural to urban areas.

The agricultural sector, with an estimated potential of $200 billion compared to the current output of $70 billion, could not only ensure food security for the nation but also boost the economy through much-needed agricultural exports. However, despite this immense potential, Pakistan continues to deplete its limited foreign exchange reserves by importing approximately $10 billion worth of agricultural products, including cotton, wheat, sugar, edible oil, milk powder, and pulses.

Successive governments have frequently discussed expanding Pakistan’s presence in international seafood and halal meat markets, but tangible progress has been minimal. There is hope that this will change as countries beyond China begin to express interest, driven by the long-delayed initiatives of the commerce ministry.

Enhancing agricultural exports would significantly alleviate pressure on the current account. Pakistan now stands at a critical juncture. While the anticipated approval of the IMF program might provide a temporary lifeline, allowing the country to navigate the next three years if all conditions are met, there is no assurance of stability beyond that.

The structural reforms required will undoubtedly be painful, prompting a last-minute scramble for more conventional methods of generating foreign exchange.

As Pakistan teeters on the brink of a deeper food security crisis, the country faces a critical decision point. While the anticipated IMF program may provide temporary relief, sustainable solutions will require painful but necessary structural reforms. Pakistan must urgently harness its agricultural potential and expand its export footprint to secure not just its economic future, but the very sustenance of its people.