The Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) has taken a firm stance against voting for the constitutional amendment package proposed by the coalition government comprising the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), and other smaller groups. This position, particularly from JUI-F’s leader Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman, is not rooted in a commitment to democracy or constitutionalism but rather in concerns about the future of family-based politics, especially in the party’s stronghold of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province.

Maulana Fazl withdrew support for the constitutional amendment package at the last minute. The JUI-F’s official reasoning was that the coalition government had not shared the draft of the amendment package with them, and without reviewing it, they could not back it. While this was a logical argument, it was not the real reason behind the refusal. It was widely known that the package proposed, among other things, the creation of a Federal Court to handle constitutional and political matters, leaving the current Supreme Court of Pakistan (SCP) to deal with civil and criminal cases. Additionally, the package sought to legalize the trials of civilians in military courts, which was intended to facilitate the trial of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, the leader of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), who faces charges related to the May 9, 2023, riots. The amendment also aimed to extend the tenures of key officials, including Chief Justice Qazi Faez Isa and members of the military leadership, with the alleged intention of positioning Justice Qazi Faez Isa as the Chief Justice of the proposed Federal Court, securing his support for the coalition on constitutional matters.

These were significant provisions for a party like JUI-F to endorse. Ironically, the government is only short of 10 votes in the National Assembly and six votes in the Senate to pass the amendment. With eight MNAs and about five Senators, the JUI-F could easily tip the scales in favor of the government. As a result, top coalition leaders—from President Asif Ali Zardari to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto—held several meetings with Maulana Fazl, urging him to reconsider. However, their efforts were in vain.

Nevertheless, the coalition remains determined to push the amendment through, as the survival of the current political arrangement—installed after alleged manipulation of the February 8 national elections by influential powers—depends on it. The government continues to court Maulana Fazl, and given the JUI-F’s history of supporting General Musharraf’s presidency and other political maneuvers, it remains uncertain whether the party will hold its ground.

So far, the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F) has refrained from supporting the constitutional amendment package, fearing it could lose its remaining political support base in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Over the years, the JUI-F’s support in its traditional strongholds, primarily in the southern parts of KP and some central and northern pockets, has significantly eroded. This decline has largely been attributed to the dominance of Maulana Fazl-ur-Rahman within the party. While many view Fazl as a shrewd politician, the continued shrinking of the JUI-F’s base suggests otherwise. He is undoubtedly a cunning dealmaker, known for securing governmental perks and privileges for himself, his family, and his close confidants within the party, but this has come at the cost of eroding the party’s conservative support in KP.

In contrast, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has been on the rise in KP, despite numerous challenges. This was evident in the PTI’s victory in the 2013 provincial elections, where it formed a government with a slim majority, followed by a near two-thirds majority in the 2018 national elections. The PTI’s overwhelming success in the February 8, 2024, national elections, securing more than a two-thirds majority in KP, further shocked the JUI-F. The PTI’s dominance in KP politics has had a particularly damaging impact on two traditional political groups: the JUI-F and the Awami National Party (ANP).

With the PTI now the dominant force in KP and across Pakistan, any support the JUI-F offers to the controversial constitutional amendments could severely damage what remains of its political base. Many would perceive the JUI-F’s support as a self-serving move, backing a highly contentious government and its deeply divisive amendments for personal gain. Such public sentiment could prove fatal for the JUI-F. Moreover, Fazl is well aware that these constitutional amendments would likely be challenged in the Supreme Court of Pakistan, where they could be struck down for being ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the Constitution, fundamentally altering its structure. If the JUI-F votes in favor of the amendments, faces public backlash, and then sees the amendments overturned by the courts, the party risks both losing credibility and further eroding its base.

On the other hand, the coalition government has little to offer the JUI-F in exchange for its support. Current offers include the deputy chairmanship of the Senate, two federal ministries, and the governorship of KP. However, Maulana Fazl, being a seasoned politician, does not consider these offers sufficient compensation for potentially sacrificing his party’s remaining support base. Still, given the government’s determination to pass the constitutional amendments, it may offer further incentives. Fazl may yet reconsider, but in Pakistan’s volatile political landscape, it remains to be seen what will happen next.