Pakistan is confronted with a dire situation as it grapples with a growing food insecurity crisis and deepening political turmoil. The country, already burdened by economic challenges, now faces the risk of severe food shortages and a deteriorating political landscape. Let us explore the concerning trends and underlying factors contributing to Pakistan’s precarious state, as highlighted in recent reports by the United Nations and other international organizations.

Between September and December 2023, more than 8.5 million individuals in Pakistan are at risk of experiencing severe food insecurity. Pakistan has now been grouped alongside the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Syrian Arab Republic, all of which are areas of concern with regards to food security. If the economic and political crisis continues to deteriorate, the situation in Pakistan is expected to worsen even more in the upcoming months. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), both United Nations bodies, Pakistan is facing an anticipated increase in acute food insecurity in the coming months.

Pakistan and Afghanistan have been identified as “early warning hotspots” by the WFP. In their report, the WFP states, “Pakistan, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Syrian Arab Republic are hotspots with very high concern, and Myanmar is also included in this edition’s warning.”

The report highlights that all of these hotspots have a significant number of people experiencing critical acute food insecurity, and the underlying factors contributing to this issue are expected to worsen, further endangering lives in the coming months. Alongside political turmoil, Pakistan has also experienced a delay in receiving a financial bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the past seven months. Pakistan has a repayment obligation of $77.5 billion over the next three years, which is considered substantial considering the country’s GDP of $350 billion in 2021.

The report further states that the political crisis and civil unrest in Pakistan are likely to worsen as the general elections are scheduled for October 2023, while insecurity in the northwest region of the country continues to grow. The shortage of foreign reserves and the devaluation of the currency are diminishing Pakistan’s capacity to import essential food items and energy supplies, leading to increased prices of food items and nationwide energy shortages.

In Afghanistan, 70 percent of the population is unable to access two proper meals a day. The economic and political crises have significantly diminished households’ purchasing power, making it difficult for them to afford food and other essential commodities. The report also warns of potential declines in coal and food export revenues if the economic and political situation in Pakistan, as well as the security conditions in border areas, continue to deteriorate.

The United Nations (UN) has predicted a surge in food insecurity in Pakistan, exacerbated by ongoing political turmoil and further challenging a nation still recovering from the 2022 flood emergency. The UN report titled “Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP Early Warnings on Severe Food Insecurity” provides this forecast. Jointly produced by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), the report covers the period from June to November 2023.

The report highlights the worsening condition in Pakistan, which is still grappling with the aftermath of the 2022 floods. These devastating floods resulted in significant destruction and economic losses amounting to Rs30 billion in the agricultural sector. However, the floods were just one of the challenges faced by the country. The report also sheds light on Pakistan’s financial crisis, emphasizing the impact of the global economic downturn and increasing national debt. It states that the government is burdened with an external debt of $77.5 billion to be repaid between April 2023 and June 2026, while the country’s GDP was $350 billion in 2021.

The report acknowledged the increasing political unrest in the region, which has prevented the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from providing a loan and has halted additional support from bilateral partners. As the October 2023 elections approach, the country’s instability is expected to worsen. The depreciation of the Pakistani rupee, coupled with the country’s lack of foreign reserves, has severely impacted its ability to import essential food and energy supplies. Consequently, this has led to higher food prices and nationwide power outages.

The combination of political and economic instability in the region has significantly reduced households’ purchasing power for food and other necessities. The report recommends strengthening disaster management agencies in the country and expanding their capacity to include forecast-based finance and risk insurance in disaster management and contingency plans for various sectors. It also suggests modifying existing social protection schemes and programs to facilitate effective preventive action and humanitarian response through social protection systems.

According to the World Bank’s latest “Food Security Update,” food prices in Pakistan have eroded households’ purchasing power by up to 38 percent. The report highlights that consumer price inflation for food items in Pakistan was 47.2 percent in March 2023 compared to the previous year – the highest in South Asia, second only to Sri Lanka with 47.6 percent.

However, the data indicates a contrasting trend between Sri Lanka and Pakistan in terms of Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the CPI has been declining in Sri Lanka over the past few months, it has been increasing in Pakistan. In Sri Lanka, the CPI was 49 percent in February and decreased to 47.6 percent. Conversely, in Pakistan, it rose from 45.1 percent to 47.2 percent. The World Bank stated that the World Food Programme (WFP) Market Monitor Report for Pakistan reported a year-on-year CPI food inflation of 43 percent in January 2023. There were significant variations in inflation rates among different food commodities in Pakistan. Food prices in Pakistan have been consistently increasing, leading to a decline in households’ purchasing power by up to 38 percent.

To stabilize the wheat market and address the regional demand, limited carry-forward stocks, and high domestic wheat prices, Pakistan approved a wheat procurement target of 1.80 million tonnes in February. The procurement price was set at 3,900 rupees ($15) per 40 kg. In response to the 2022 International Wheat Tender, 200,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia were imported and stored in Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation Ltd storage centers. The report also highlighted that domestic wheat prices in Pakistan closely followed price movements in the European Union and the United States, whereas they exhibited less volatility and response to world prices compared to China and India.

Pakistan finds itself at a critical juncture, with the looming threat of acute food insecurity affecting millions of individuals. The country’s political instability, coupled with economic woes and delays in financial assistance, has exacerbated the crisis. It is imperative for both domestic and international stakeholders to address these challenges urgently, implement effective strategies to alleviate food shortages, stabilize the economy, and restore political stability. Failure to do so may result in further suffering for the people of Pakistan and exacerbate an already precarious situation.