A man died during a stampede to get subsidised flour in Sindh. Protests continue in all provinces against shortages and high prices of the commodity. Its rates have crossed Rs160/kg and chicken sells at over Rs600/kg. The rupee continues to lose its value against the dollar and the government is expected to hike electricity and fuel rates, which will further increase prices, which are already beyond the patience threshold of the common people.

Local authorities blame the Centre for the price hike and shortages while the federal government claims it is a provincial subject and it cannot interfere in it. However, the common people have suffered badly in the blame game. People are facing unprecedented price surges of essential food and other items and the situation is expected to worsen after the government has hinted at increasing fuel and electricity rates to revive the IMF package.

Weekly inflation jumped by nearly 31pc as compared to last year. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the price index for the week ending on Jan 5, posted an increase of around 1.1pc, which was accompanied by massive surges in the prices of some commodities. According to media reports, the price of wheat flour has increased nearly 80pc from a year ago. The price of 5kg and 10kg flour bags has almost doubled from a year ago. Wheat flour in major cities of Sindh and Punjab sells at approximately Rs160 per kg. In some parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a 20kg wheat flour bag sells at Rs3,000. The price of naan has increased up to Rs30 and roti to Rs25 in Punjab, Pakistan’s food basket.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, food, particularly the non-perishable category, is a major source of inflation because of the persistent increase in global food prices of imported commodities (such as palm oil and tea), alongside the supply-demand gaps in some commodities (in particular, milk and meat). Furthermore, fuel inflation also remained at an elevated level. Inflation in the non-food-non-energy group also swelled, indicating both demand and cost push pressures.

On the other hand, former energy minister Hammad Azhar has warned that inflation will further rise by 40pc if the government accepts IMF conditions. Fearing a severe food crisis, he claimed the government had brought the economy on the verge of collapse during its nine months.

Pakistan faces a serious food crisis after recent rains and floods, which have damaged vegetables and other crops in all provinces. Prices of food have already skyrocketed and it is feared that the next few months will be even tougher for the common people. The country also faces shortages and high prices of meat after a large number of cattle have been killed in Balochistan and Sindh.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average inflation rate in Pakistan will peak by the end of the current fiscal year on the back of currency depreciation and higher commodity prices. According to the Ministry of Finance, the floods have reduced the potential output of both main and minor Kharif crops, thereby tampering with the positive outlook of the agriculture sector. “Initially ignored by the government, the floods have become the third serious challenge after global and domestic uncertainties that are still surrounding the economic outlook,” it noted.

Pakistan’s Climate Change Division has warned that the sea level along the coast may rise by two to three feet by 2100, threatening the existence of cities like Thatta, Badin and Karachi. The country has lost 1.8 million acres of arable land to sea intrusion because of rise in sea levels in the wake of climate change. In a presentation, the Climate Change Division said the persistence of high intensity heat waves had increased to 41 days in a year and the country would face absolute water scarcity by 2025 while food insecurity would rise from 40pc to 60pc by 2050. The major reason is the increased frequency of low agricultural productivity in the backdrop of extreme climatic events. Pakistan has ranked amongst the most polluted countries and faces the highest projected annual economic loss to GDP (9.1pc) in Asia. It is also suffering a loss of 27,000 acres of forest cover every year. It has a high population growth rate of 2.1pc and there will be a threefold increase in the climate-induced migration from 0.7 million to 2 million by 2050. In the global context, Pakistan is at the frontline of climate risks, encountering disasters at multiple levels, and is at the eighth place amongst the most affected countries.

Pakistan may face absolute water scarcity by 2025 and a rise in food insecurity following increased frequency of low agricultural productivity due to extreme climatic events. Pakistan has faced 152 extreme events due to climate change over the last two decades and has seen a shift in rainfall patterns, intensity and frequency.

According to a recent study by McKinsey, “A reflection on global food security challenges amid the war in Ukraine and the early impact of climate change,” the war in Ukraine, climate change and the pandemic have caused logistical constraints that could cause a grain deficit of up to 60 million tons by the end of 2023. The price of grain has increased in 2020, when the pandemic affected global logistic chains. Since then, drought-induced harvests have increased prices even more. With the ongoing war in Ukraine, there is a risk of a food crisis, which may become the most serious so far in the 21st century.

The situation in Pakistan shows prices will further increase in the days to come. The government is not in a position to provide subsidies to the common people. However, it should focus to ensure smooth supplies of food.