A tug-of-war between the coalition government and the only opposition party of Pakistan, led by former Prime Minister Imran Khan, has entered the final stage. Both sides stick to their guns and are confident about their victory. However, the government’s aggressive approach to workers and leaders of the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf shows it is hopeful of staying in power longer than expected.

The government’s growing confidence is evident from its recent steps. The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) lodged a case against Imran Khan and key members of his party in an alleged foreign funding case. They were accused of violating the Foreign Exchange Act and being beneficiaries of a private bank account. According to the FIR, a bank account was created in the name of “Naya Pakistan”. “The bank manager allowed the illegitimate operation of the bank account, which received $2.1 million from the Abraaj Group of Companies. The PTI submitted an affidavit of Arif Naqvi with the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP). The affidavit was false and fake. The money was sent by the Wootton Cricket Club from two other accounts. The private bank head helped the suspects in getting suspicious and unlawful details,” the FIA alleged.

Recently, the government arrested PTI Senator Azam Swati for a controversial tweet. Earlier, key leaders of the party, including Senator Saifullah Khan Nyazee, Hamid Zaman and Tariq Shafi had been picked up by the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in the foreign funding case. According to the FIR, Hamid Zaman and Tariq Shafi are accused of being accomplices of Abraaj founder Arif Masood Naqvi. The FIR alleged that Arif Naqvi had “siphoned off Rs9.1bn from funds of Abraaj Group and its subsidiary companies abroad and funneled to the Aman Foundation’s accounts through Foreign Telegraphic Transfers (FTTs) with unexplained money trail.” The FIR also names the Karachi-based Tariq Shafi. He is accused of registering a “bogus” Insaf Trust to create an impression that it is a part of the PTI. He was one of the accused named in the Election Commission of Pakistan’s verdict in the PTI’s prohibited funding case.

The government’s hardening stance shows it is confident about its stay in power even if Imran Khan holds a long march and paralyses the country. On the other hand, Imran Khan is making an all-out effort to force the government to succumb to his demands for an early election. It will be difficult for him to force the government to announce early polls through a long march for a few days. The government is also prepared for a long fight if the sit-in continues for weeks and months. It will try to weaken his position even before the start of his protest movement. Even if his demand is accepted, it does not guarantee his success in the next election. The system and state machinery are working against him and it will be difficult for him to win an absolute majority, though all recent surveys show he could win by a two-thirds majority.

Rumour has it that general elections will be delayed for one year and they could be held in 2024, instead of their scheduled time in 2023. It is feared an emergency could be declared in the country after the law and order would worsen in the coming weeks and months. The way the government behaves it shows it is not in a hurry to announce elections on their scheduled time.

Under the plan, governor’s rule could be imposed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, if the law and order continues to deteriorate in the province. A plan has also been finalised to topple the PTI government in Punjab. Under the new plan, 10 to 15 PTI members have been targeted. They have been intimidated and bribed to leave the country. Arrangements are being made to provide them with enough money so that they can settle permanently in Europe. When they leave the country, Punjab Chief Minister Pervaiz Elahi will be asked to take a vote of confidence. As he will not have the required majority, he would lose his office. On the other hand, the PTI MPAs, who will be absent during the vote of confidence, would not have to face any action from the party. The plan has been fine-tuned after a recent Supreme Court ruling under which no member of parliament can vote against their party lines. In this way, the PML-N will be able to install its own government in Punjab ahead of the arrival of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who wants his party’s government in its home province at any cost, even if it has to lose its government in the Centre, where it feels uncomfortable and being blackmailed by coalition partners. Nawaz Sharif also believes it will be futile to arrive in Pakistan without a government in Punjab, because otherwise he would not be able to use state resources to revive his politics.

On the other hand, the parliament will pass a bill, under which lifetime disqualification could be commuted to five years and Nawaz Sharif would become eligible to take part in politics and run for the PM office for the fourth time. On the other hand, it is said Imran Khan would be disqualified for five years to provide a “level playing field” to Nawaz Sharif.

Imran Khan could have been disqualified from taking part in politics soon after his ouster but his rising popularity is a big hurdle to the plan. Even if he is disqualified, he will still be relevant to national politics and even better placed to do what he could not during his rule.