Following the recent but highly consequential conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance, the prospect of a new nuclear deal with Iran has become both critically important and exceptionally difficult. During the conflict, US-Israeli airstrikes inflicted substantial damage on Iranian nuclear installations. As a result, Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels has been severely compromised. Yet, it is equally true that the US and Israel were unable to completely dismantle Iran’s nuclear program.
This reality makes the case for a renewed nuclear agreement more urgent. However, reaching such a deal will be a formidable challenge for Iran’s leadership. That said, Iran appears to have little choice. A careful analysis of recent public statements by senior Iranian officials during and after the conflict suggests that Tehran is open to negotiating a new nuclear arrangement with the US and its allies.
If such a deal materializes, its implications would extend far beyond Iran itself, significantly impacting the broader Middle East and the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, including Pakistan. Any agreement would come at a time of immense turmoil in these areas, making its consequences potentially transformative. Politically, economically, and in terms of security, the ripple effects would be swift and far-reaching.
To understand the stakes, one must recall the original nuclear deal signed in 2015 (not 2017), during the Obama administration and later abandoned by President Donald Trump in 2018. Under that agreement, Iran curtailed its uranium enrichment activities in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. However, the sanctions relief was partial and short-lived.
A new deal could help ease decades of hostility between Iran and the West, which has fueled instability in the Middle East and crippled Iran’s economy. Nonetheless, some powerful voices within Iran — and among its foreign sympathizers — argue that abandoning the nuclear path may jeopardize Iran’s long-term security. This view, however, ignores a fundamental truth: security is a multifaceted and holistic concept. Military power, including nuclear weapons, alone does not ensure a state’s survival. The Soviet Union, despite possessing the largest nuclear arsenal, collapsed due to internal socio-political and economic factors.
Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capability has come at a steep cost. Its economy is in shambles, society is polarized between an ultra-conservative leadership and a largely liberal population, and its political system — despite holding periodic but limited elections — is increasingly seen as ineffective. These internal fractures have compromised both the stability and security of the Iranian state. In turn, this instability has had a destabilizing effect on the wider Middle East, with implications for Afghanistan and Pakistan — countries that many scholars argue form part of the broader Middle Eastern geopolitical sphere.
In conclusion, while a new nuclear deal with Iran may be fraught with challenges, it remains an essential step toward regional stability. Its success or failure will shape not only the future of Iran but also the fate of its neighbors and the wider region.
Despite ongoing internal and external pressures, Iran has arguably remained one of the more stable states in the wider Middle East. As the modern successor to the ancient Persian Empire, Iran has played an influential role in regional politics for centuries — a role it has continued even under stringent Western sanctions.
Since the 1979 overthrow of the Shah’s monarchy and the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini’s clerical leadership — an event referred to by Iranian authorities as the “Islamic Revolution” — the rift between Iran and the West has deepened. Driven by ideological and strategic differences, Tehran has persistently opposed Western, especially American, interests in the region. This has included supporting militant organizations such as Hezbollah. Though widely recognized as a Shiite state with strong ties to Shiite communities and regimes globally, Iran has at times also extended tactical support to vehemently anti-Shiite groups like Al-Qaeda and, more recently, the Afghan Taliban — mainly due to their shared anti-Western positions.
In this context, a new nuclear deal is crucial for Iran’s future. Restoring its economy and reinvigorating its political institutions would help Iran regain lost viability and influence. Economic revival would not only stabilize Iran internally but also generate positive spillover effects for the wider region’s political economy and security landscape.
Should a new nuclear agreement be reached and sanctions on Iran lifted, Tehran would likely adopt a more cautious foreign policy posture — avoiding entanglement in regional conflicts, at least in the near term. It might refrain from deep involvement in the ongoing Syrian civil war, a potential new Afghan civil war, the persistent Sunni-Shiite rivalry in Iraq, or the protracted crisis in Yemen involving the Houthi insurgency. Moreover, Iran would be mindful of avoiding exposure to Israeli attacks like those experienced recently.
The restoration of Iran’s economy and its ensuing political stability could have particularly constructive consequences for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, Iran would likely seek to support stability to access a larger regional market for its surplus goods and energy exports. Rebuilding Afghanistan could offer Iran significant economic opportunities, especially in energy and construction sectors.
For Pakistan, the implications could be even more tangible. One of the most critical potential outcomes would be the revival of the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project. Iran has already completed its section of the pipeline, but Pakistan has stalled construction on its side, largely due to pressure from the US, UN sanctions, and Saudi objections. With sanctions lifted, many of the obstacles Islamabad faces would be removed, paving the way for Pakistan to secure much-needed natural gas supplies.
In conclusion, a renewed nuclear deal between Iran and the West holds the promise of wide-ranging benefits — not just for Iran, but for the broader Middle East and South Asia. It is now up to the regional states to recognize the opportunities and work towards maximizing gains from the unfolding geopolitical realignment.