Pakistan is heading toward an increasingly perilous future, shaped not only by rapid urbanisation but also by intensifying heat linked to climate change. A recent study by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab has issued a stark warning: by 2050, the country could experience a net increase of 51 temperature-related deaths per 100,000 people. This projection places Pakistan among the nations most vulnerable to climate-driven mortality, with the greatest burden expected to fall on its urban population.
The findings paint a troubling picture of how rising temperatures could transform Pakistan’s cities into hotspots of health risk. Major urban centres—including Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Lahore, Peshawar, Hyderabad, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad—are projected to witness sharp increases in heat-related deaths over the coming decades. In some cases, the numbers are particularly alarming. Faisalabad alone could face as many as 9,400 additional deaths annually by mid-century if current trends continue unchecked.
Globally, Pakistan’s cities are expected to account for a significant share of rising heat mortality. The study suggests that nearly one-third of the additional deaths in cities worldwide due to increasing temperatures could occur in Pakistan’s urban areas. This disproportionate impact highlights both the country’s vulnerability to climate change and the structural weaknesses in its urban development model.
At the heart of the problem lies the way Pakistan’s cities have expanded over the years. Urban growth has been rapid, often unplanned, and largely disconnected from considerations of environmental sustainability and climate resilience. Green spaces, trees, and natural landscapes have steadily given way to concrete structures, roads, and dense housing. This transformation has intensified the urban heat-island effect, where built-up areas trap heat and remain significantly warmer than surrounding rural regions.
The consequences of this phenomenon are already visible. Cities are experiencing longer and more intense heatwaves, with limited relief during nighttime hours. The lack of vegetation reduces natural cooling, while widespread use of heat-absorbing construction materials exacerbates temperature increases. Traffic congestion and industrial activity further contribute to rising urban temperatures, compounding the risks for residents.
The impact is especially severe for those living in informal settlements. Millions of people in Pakistan’s cities reside in densely populated areas with inadequate infrastructure. Poor ventilation, limited access to clean water, unreliable electricity, and substandard housing conditions make these communities highly vulnerable to extreme heat. For many residents, even basic coping mechanisms—such as using fans or air conditioning—are either unavailable or unaffordable.
Despite the scale of the challenge, international experience shows that targeted interventions can significantly reduce heat-related mortality. Cities around the world have implemented measures that offer valuable lessons for Pakistan. Expanding urban green cover, for instance, can play a crucial role in cooling neighbourhoods. Trees and parks not only provide shade but also help lower ambient temperatures through natural processes such as evapotranspiration.
Urban planning must therefore be reoriented to prioritise climate resilience. This includes designing cities with shaded streets, green corridors, and accessible public parks. Building regulations should also be updated to encourage the use of reflective materials, improved insulation, and designs that enhance natural ventilation. Such measures can reduce indoor temperatures and lessen the reliance on energy-intensive cooling systems.
In addition to long-term planning, immediate steps are needed to protect vulnerable populations during extreme heat events. Early warning systems can help alert communities ahead of heatwaves, allowing them to take precautionary measures. The establishment of cooling centres—public spaces equipped with fans, water, and medical support—can provide critical relief during peak heat periods. Strengthening emergency response systems is equally important to ensure timely assistance for those affected by heat-related illnesses.
However, one of the most significant obstacles to effective adaptation is the lack of financial resources. Pakistan’s budget for climate adaptation remains limited, constraining the scope and scale of potential interventions. While international climate finance has been pledged to support developing countries, much of it has yet to materialise in a meaningful way. This funding gap poses a serious challenge to implementing the comprehensive measures needed to address rising heat risks.
The situation calls for a more proactive and coordinated approach at the national and local levels. Policymakers must integrate climate considerations into all aspects of urban development, from infrastructure projects to housing policies. Investments in sustainable urban design should be viewed not as optional but as essential for safeguarding public health and economic stability.
Moreover, raising public awareness about the risks of extreme heat is crucial. Communities need to be informed about preventive measures, such as staying hydrated, avoiding outdoor activities during peak heat hours, and recognising the symptoms of heat-related illnesses. Empowering citizens with knowledge can enhance resilience at the grassroots level.
The broader implication of the study is clear: climate change is no longer a distant threat but an immediate and growing reality. For Pakistan, the intersection of rapid urbanisation and rising temperatures creates a particularly dangerous combination. Without decisive action, the human cost of inaction could be immense.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s urban future is at a critical crossroads. The choices made today will determine whether cities become more resilient or increasingly hazardous places to live. Addressing the urban heat crisis requires a combination of strategic planning, investment, and political will. As temperatures continue to rise, the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. Ultimately, the cost of failing to act will not be measured in economic terms alone, but in the loss of human lives.