Why the world cannot afford a clash over the Strait of Hormuz
The strategic waters of the Strait of Hormuz have once again become the focus of global geopolitical tension. The narrow maritime corridor, lying between Iran and Oman, carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and a substantial portion of global liquefied natural gas supplies. Any disruption there instantly jolts global markets, raises fuel prices, rattles shipping industries, and threatens economic stability far beyond the Middle East.
Today, the world is witnessing an intensifying sparring match between the United States and Iran over who controls the rules of passage through the Strait. At stake is not merely a regional dispute, but the future of freedom of navigation, the sanctity of international maritime law, and the stability of the global economy itself.
Iran’s position on Hormuz has hardened considerably in recent months. Tehran argues that because the Strait lies within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, coastal states possess the right to regulate passage in the interest of national security. Iranian officials have increasingly challenged the Western interpretation of “unconditional transit passage,” insisting that no nation can use the Strait for military pressure or hostile operations against Iran while simultaneously demanding unrestricted access.
Iran has even explored the idea of imposing tolls or selective authorization mechanisms for ships using the waterway. Iranian lawmakers and military officials claim such measures are necessary to ensure security and compensate Tehran for maintaining stability in one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.
Tehran also argues that the security environment has fundamentally changed. Iranian officials maintain that the presence of hostile naval forces near their coast justifies enhanced oversight of maritime traffic. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commanders have gone further by redefining the operational boundaries of the Strait itself, signaling Tehran’s desire to expand its strategic influence across a much wider maritime zone.
The United States and its allies, however, reject these claims outright. Washington insists that the Strait of Hormuz is governed by the internationally recognized principle of “transit passage” under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). According to this doctrine, ships and aircraft of all nations enjoy the right of continuous and unimpeded passage through international straits.
Although the United States itself has not formally ratified UNCLOS, successive American administrations have argued that the transit passage regime has become customary international law binding on all states. American naval patrols and “freedom of navigation” operations in the Gulf are intended to reinforce that principle.
European nations have largely sided with the American legal interpretation, though many European capitals prefer diplomacy over confrontation. The European Union has repeatedly stressed that no tolls or restrictions should be imposed on international shipping through Hormuz. Brussels argues that freedom of navigation is essential for global trade and energy security. The Group of Seven countries, along with the EU, have also called for free and secure transit through the Strait in accordance with international maritime law.
At the same time, many European governments remain wary of escalating military tensions. Europe understands that any armed confrontation in the Gulf would have devastating economic consequences, especially at a time when global inflation, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions are already troubling many economies.
Asian nations are equally concerned. China, Japan, India, and South Korea rely heavily on Gulf energy supplies transported through Hormuz. For these countries, uninterrupted maritime commerce is not simply a legal matter but an economic necessity. Most Asian powers therefore favour negotiated arrangements that reduce tensions while preserving open sea lanes.
The legal complexities surrounding Hormuz are substantial. The Strait is only about 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, meaning its waters fall largely within the territorial seas of Iran and Oman. However, international law created a special category for such waterways because they are indispensable to global navigation.
Under UNCLOS, “transit passage” through international straits cannot generally be suspended, even during periods of tension. Coastal states retain sovereignty over their territorial waters but cannot impede continuous navigation. Iran disputes the universal applicability of this doctrine because it signed but never ratified UNCLOS and claims the transit passage regime binds only treaty members.
This disagreement exposes a broader weakness in the international legal order: major powers selectively invoke international law when it suits their strategic interests. Critics point out that the United States insists on maritime freedoms while itself remaining outside UNCLOS. Iran, meanwhile, seeks to assert sovereign rights while depending heavily on the same global trading system whose rules it contests.
The consequences of continued confrontation are potentially catastrophic. Even temporary disruptions in Hormuz can trigger sharp spikes in oil prices, raise shipping insurance costs, and create panic in energy markets. Developing economies, including many in South Asia and Africa, would suffer immensely from rising fuel and food prices.
Moreover, any normalization of tolls or politically conditioned passage rights in Hormuz could establish a dangerous precedent for other maritime chokepoints such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Suez Canal region, or the South China Sea. The global trading system depends on predictable and rules-based maritime access.
The best path forward lies not in military escalation but in multilateral diplomacy. A sustainable solution should rest on four principles.
First, freedom of commercial navigation must remain guaranteed for all nations without discrimination. The uninterrupted movement of civilian trade is a global public good.
Second, Iran’s legitimate security concerns cannot simply be dismissed. Tehran fears encirclement and hostile military activity close to its shores. Confidence-building mechanisms, including joint maritime monitoring and communication channels, could help reduce tensions.
Third, regional ownership of Gulf security should be strengthened. Gulf Arab states, Iran, Oman, and major global stakeholders should pursue a collective maritime security framework rather than relying solely on external military power.
Finally, international law must be applied consistently. Selective interpretations by powerful states only weaken global norms and deepen mistrust.
The Strait of Hormuz is more than a narrow waterway; it is a symbol of the fragile interdependence of today’s world. In an era of economic uncertainty and geopolitical rivalry, the international community cannot afford a prolonged confrontation there. Prudence, diplomacy, and respect for shared rules remain the only viable route to safeguarding global trade and economic stability.