The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent far-reaching ripples across the global economy, affecting countries in ways that many had not anticipated. Among those facing significant and multifaceted repercussions is Pakistan, where the war’s impact on food security is becoming increasingly visible and concerning. As a country heavily reliant on imports for key food commodities such as wheat, edible oils, and pulses, Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The economic aftereffects of the Middle East conflict are now being felt through rising prices, disrupted supply chains, and increasing uncertainty in global markets.

A key factor exacerbating the situation is the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime trade corridor through which approximately 20 percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass, along with roughly one-third (25–35 percent) of global fertilizer shipments. In addition, nearly half of the world’s traded sulphur, an essential component in phosphatic fertilizers, is transported through this route. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is increasingly restricting these vital flows. One of the most immediate consequences is the strain on fertilizer supply. Countries in the Gulf region collectively account for nearly half of global urea exports and a substantial share of ammonia and sulphur trade. Disruptions in LNG supplies have constrained nitrogen fertilizer production, while reduced refining activity has tightened sulphur availability for phosphatic fertilizers. This dual shock is translating into widespread shortages and escalating prices.

Agriculture in Pakistan, being highly energy-intensive, is directly affected by these developments. Diesel is widely used to power tractors and tube wells, while electricity is essential for sustaining irrigation systems. Rising fuel prices are significantly increasing the cost of irrigation, land preparation, and harvesting. This is particularly detrimental in groundwater-dependent regions, where higher diesel costs directly limit water extraction, thereby reducing crop yields and overall agricultural productivity.

Another major consequence of the conflict is the disruption of global food supply chains. The broader region, including countries such as Russia and Ukraine, plays a critical role in global agricultural exports, especially wheat, which is a staple in Pakistan’s diet. Prior to the conflict, these countries accounted for a significant share of Pakistan’s wheat imports. However, with the intensification of hostilities and instability in trade routes, Pakistan is now facing considerable difficulty in sourcing wheat at affordable prices and in sufficient quantities.

The country had already been grappling with wheat shortages due to a series of poor harvests in recent years, further aggravated by unpredictable climate change patterns affecting domestic agriculture. In 2022, Pakistan was compelled to import wheat at exceptionally high prices from countries such as the United States and Canada. However, continued volatility in international markets, largely driven by geopolitical tensions and conflict, has rendered such emergency measures increasingly unsustainable.

The rise in food prices is one of the most immediate and visible consequences of the Middle East conflict for Pakistan’s food security. The global surge in fuel prices, partly driven by the conflict, has significantly increased transportation and logistics costs associated with food distribution. This has, in turn, contributed to inflation in the prices of essential food items across the country. Staples such as rice, fruits, and vegetables have become more expensive, placing additional strain on household budgets and making it increasingly difficult for many families to meet their daily nutritional requirements.

Pakistan’s domestic agricultural productivity has also been adversely affected in multiple ways. The war has driven up global fertilizer prices, with major exporters such as Russia playing a crucial role in the international supply chain. As a result, local farmers, who were already struggling with rising input costs, now face even greater challenges in affording the fertilizers necessary to maintain and improve crop yields.

At the same time, the conflict has intensified Pakistan’s ongoing energy crisis. As global oil prices rise due to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, the costs associated with operating agricultural machinery, transporting goods, and powering irrigation systems continue to increase. Given that large areas of Pakistan’s agricultural land, particularly in provinces such as Sindh and Punjab, depend heavily on irrigation, the resulting increase in production costs poses a serious threat to overall food output.

Beyond rising prices and production challenges, the Middle East conflict is also having a profound impact on livelihoods. Millions of Pakistanis depend on agriculture and related sectors for their income. Small-scale farmers, especially those in rural areas, are particularly vulnerable, as they face difficulties in accessing affordable credit, quality seeds, and essential inputs. While larger agricultural enterprises may have the financial capacity to absorb some of these shocks, small farmers, laborers, and seasonal workers are disproportionately bearing the burden of rising costs and economic uncertainty.

In response to the mounting crisis, the government of Pakistan has initiated several measures aimed at ensuring food security. These include increasing wheat imports and engaging in negotiations with countries such as Russia to secure supplies at relatively lower prices, thereby enabling the provision of subsidized food to low-income households. However, these measures, while necessary, are not sufficient on their own.

Pakistan must adopt a more comprehensive and forward-looking strategy to address its food security challenges. This includes investing in long-term agricultural reforms, promoting sustainable and climate-resilient farming practices, and improving water management systems to mitigate the effects of drought and environmental degradation. Additionally, the country must diversify its sources of food imports to reduce reliance on regions affected by geopolitical instability. Strengthening trade relations with countries in Africa, Latin America, and other regions could provide a more stable and resilient supply base.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East serves as a stark reminder of the deep interconnectedness of the global food system. It underscores the urgent need for Pakistan to strengthen its agricultural sector, reduce external vulnerabilities, and build a more resilient and sustainable food system capable of withstanding future shocks.