In pursuit of long-term economic stability
The current engagement between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund has been a critical juncture in its journey towards economic reforms and stability. The talks revolved around prudent fiscal policies, revenue generation, and structural reforms, that made dialogue collaborative and built upon actionable measures towards the betterment of the country’s economics.
According to Pakistani authorities, the productive character of these discussions was aimed at building confidence and creating a sense of shared vision towards sustainable growth. Government commitment to reform remains uncontroversial even while considering difficult issues such as privatization, energy sector reform, and sustainability in pension. Therefore, there is an IMF call on Pakistan to scale down state involvement in the economy and increase competition. More immediately, there is also a call for implementing structural reforms in the energy sector in order for it to be sustainable. Speaking after the IMF staff visit to Pakistan from November 12 to 15, 2024, Nathan Porter, the IMF mission chief, stressed prudent fiscal and monetary policies, efforts at mobilization of revenue from untapped tax bases, and transferring greater social and developmental responsibilities to the provinces. “Structural energy reforms and reduced state intervention in the economy will help in restoring the vibrancy of the energy sector while fostering a dynamic private sector,” he added.
The IMF team met with senior federal and provincial governments’ officials, SBP, as well as private sector representatives. Porter stated that with the 2024 Extended Fund Facility, Pakistan was to “commit to implementing necessary economic reforms”. It could result in a more prosperous and more inclusive Pakistan if well implemented. During the visit, the IMF delegation reiterated that the EFF framework encompassed tax targets and the National Fiscal Pact. The minister of finance, Muhammad Aurangzeb, also participated in the meeting and reaffirmed commitment to successfully collecting tax revenues for the fiscal fiscal year at Rs12,970 billion. The IMF also asked Pakistan to start collecting taxes on agricultural income by January 2025 and develop its fiscal management capabilities.
The lender advised strengthening the capacity of the Finance Division to undertake leading macro-fiscal forecasting, increase forecast cycles and bring them in tune with budget preparation. It also provided legal amends to constrict discretionary federal powers of supplementary grants while providing some flexibility in concurring with budget execution. However, Finance Minister Aurangzeb still ruled out any mini-budget while reassuring them to meet fiscal targets. He pointed out that the target of primary surplus had been met and also the nationwide fiscal package approved by the cabinet had wiped out the need for change in the NFC award. That is a significant achievement combined with guidance from the IMF shows Pakistan’s commitment towards stabilizing the economy and promoting growth. He described the discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) so far as “constructive and productive,” explaining that the engagement was all about open, fact-based dialogue. It is thus clarified that the visit of the IMF is focused on building confidence rather than an economic review, with the global lender taking much care of Pakistan’s position.
Referring to a few hiccups in the privatization process, including sale of the Pakistan International Airlines, which was not finalized, Aurangzeb once more reaffirmed that the government is quite serious about privatizing state-owned enterprises. “We will continue with the privatization of Gencos, DISCOs, and airports in phases,” he said. He added the power sector is showing progress, especially in transmission and distribution. The head appreciated Federal Minister Awais Leghari for his leadership in the power sector and overall improvement.
Aurangzeb says the National Fiscal Pact had overwhelming support from the provincial governments, and he is quite thankful to Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah for his cooperation. He appreciates the KP government for making national interests take precedence over their needs. He says that certainly, provincial cooperation will provide the much-needed impetus for fiscal reforms and stabilize the economy. On government restructuring, he said rightsizing of operations had already been completed in 11 ministries and was still in process for five others. In pension reforms, Aurangzeb urged not to underscore the “meager” progress as contributions by civil bureaucracy were indeed incorporated into the pension system. But he said he can’t say that no action on pension reform took place as that would be “unfair,” and specifically reiterated the government’s commitment to sustainable financial management.
At this very critical juncture for Pakistan, teaming up with the IMF would be crucial in setting the foundations for long-term economic stability and growth. For prudent fiscal policies, structural reforms, and revenue sources still unexploited, the Pakistani government is taking the hard hits across the board to challenge issues of privatization hurdles and pension sustainability.
To position itself for a more prosperous and inclusive future, Pakistan needs provincial cooperation for more effective integration of the entire nation, enhancements in the energy sector, and encouragement of private sector growth. However, this would require consistent and thorough implementation of reforms while unrelentingly adhering to uncompromising transparent policymaking with high efficacy. Fiscal discipline, structural improvement, and revenue optimization are in the top line of the country’s strategy and are moving well in the development of a more stable and more inclusive economy. Indeed, running into problems like setbacks in privatization and pension reform continue, but everything is alright with the government and the people because of open dialogue and collaborative action. These can be achieved if Pakistan is to look forward to charting a path toward long-term prosperity and significantly improved living standards of citizens through provincial cooperation, energy sector advancements, and engagement by the private sector; success, however, will depend on steady implementation and adherence to the reform agenda.