The joint US-Israeli attack on Iran and brutal assassinationof Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has created an explosive situation in the Middle East which is on the verge of a wider war. The US has committed naked aggression against Iran in flagrant violation of the UN charter and international law. No wonder, there has been worldwide condemnation of the act – not only from Russia and China but also from European countries.

The war that has broken out threatening regional peace has been most brazenly and roguishly imposed by the US on Iran. Only days ago, negotiations were going on successfully, involving the International Atomic Energy Agency. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Al Busaidi, had publicly spoken of near agreement on Iran not producing nuclear weapons, drawing down of existing stockpiles, not stockpiling in future and IAEA inspection and verification mechanism. Iran had also signalled its willingness to reconsider its support for regional non-state actors and its missile programme.

According to intelligence reports, the Iranians had also agreed to allow American inspectors into the country for verification on their nuclear programme. The Omani foreign minister went on CBS News the night before the strikes to publicly state how well the negotiations were going, in what seems to be last-minute efforts to avert war. Most importantly, states such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Turkey were against this war and have been lobbying behind the scenes against the US attacking.

But then there was an invisible change in Washington’s objectives — from enrichment caps and verification mechanisms to regime change inside Iran. This was the trigger for the sudden launching of deadly strikes against Iran. It may be added here that during the 12-day war in June, the strikes were limited to destroying missile depots and eliminating military top brass. But this time the target was not only Iran’s military command but also its political leadership. To this end, wave after wave of US and Israeli bombers targeted the residential and office buildings under the use of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other dignitaries. The timing of the attack was also significant. Previous Israeli operations were conducted under the cover of darkness, whereas this time round attacks began in broad daylight in order to maximise and showcase the damage and expose the collapse of the system. Equally important is the fact that as compared to the June war, this time the US played a more aggressive role in attacking targets inside Iran alongside Israel.

Iran lost no time in responding to the vicious attack jointly by the US and Israel. Iranian missiles struck not just Israel but also the US assets across the Gulf. This shows that Iran was ready to bear the initial brunt and counterattack the adversary with full force.

Going a step further, Iran moved swiftly to close the Strait of Hormuz, warning vessels against passage. This means that Iran is in no mood to give up and preparing for a long war.

The assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei is no doubt a big shock and turning point for the Islamic Republic of Iran but it does not presage a regime change as desired by the US. His assassination removes a figure who for more than three decades headed Iran’s political, military and religious hierarchy. Ayatollah Khamenei was not merely a head of state. As Supreme Leader, he exercised final authority over foreign policy, the armed forces and the state’s ideological direction. As Marjai Taqleed, he embodied religious legitimacy that extended to the world’s entire Shia population.

His passing is a big blow, but there is no danger of an immediate collapse of the Iranian system, given its state structure and history. According to some observers, the removal of Ayatollah Khamenei from the scene introduces an element of uncertainty and unpredictability in the Iranian situation with the possibility of hardliners taking the driving seat. Khamenei, though implacably opposed to Israel, was a known quantity. His moves were calculated and calibrated. A new leader under pressure to demonstrate strength may be less restrained and more adventurous.

As it is, Iran has responded withan incessant barrage of missile and drone strikes against Israel and US facilities in the Gulf. Its network of regional allies and proxies, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, is also expected to scale up their aggressive posture in the Gulf region. Hezbollah has already mounted a severe attack on Israel from southern Lebanon.

President Donald Trump has played a big strategic gamble by attacking Iran but whether he succeeds in his aim remains an open question. It is possible that his move may boomerang and a more hardline regime emerges in Iran to challenge the US power diplomacy in the Middle Eastin aid of Israel’s expansionist designs.