In the dusty fields of Pakistan, where cotton has long been a golden thread weaving through the nation’s economy, the 2024-25 season unfurled a story of struggle and shortfall.
Farmers watched helplessly as their crops withered under a brutal trifecta: unrelenting heatwaves, torrential rains 51% above normal, and swarms of whiteflies that turned fields into graveyards. The harvest limped in at just 6.42 million bales—41% below the 10.87 million bale dream officials had pinned their hopes on. For a country where cotton isn’t just a crop but the backbone of a textile industry that powers 60% of export earnings, this isn’t just a bad year—it’s a warning siren. Punjab, the cotton kingpin, barely scraped together 3.18 million bales, missing its mark by over half as farmers swapped cotton for sesame, squeezed by late wheat harvests and pitiful prices. Sindh and Balochistan fared better but couldn’t bridge the gap, with acreage shrinking to 2.04 million hectares against a 3.12 million hectare goal.
The fallout landed hard at a high-stakes meeting chaired by Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain, where grim faces from the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee spelled it out: without a lifeline, the textile sector—Pakistan’s economic engine—could stall, choked by raw material shortages and spiraling import costs. As exports teeter and gas prices soar, the stakes have never been higher.
Pakistan’s cotton fields told a grim tale this season, yielding a mere 6.42 million bales in 2024-25—41% shy of the 10.87 million hoped for. Extreme weather, relentless pests, and farmers turning to other crops left the harvest battered, officials shared on Friday. For a nation where cotton fuels the textile industry—a lifeline bringing in 60% of export cash—this shortfall stings deep.
In Punjab, the cotton heartland, production crashed to just 3.18 million bales, not even half the target. Farmers there shrank their cotton patches by 22%, chasing sesame instead after late wheat harvests and dismal prices squeezed their margins. Sindh pulled in 2.82 million bales, hitting 72% of its goal, while Balochistan came closest at 89%, with 0.423 million bales. Across the country, cotton acres dwindled to 2.04 million hectares, far from the 3.12 million planned, as scorching heat, 51% heavier rains, and whitefly swarms tore through fields, especially in Sindh and Balochistan.
Experts from the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee painted a stark picture: without bold moves, the textile sector could choke on raw material shortages and ballooning import costs. Looking ahead, the government’s betting on a rebound, aiming for 10.56 million bales in 2025-26 by expanding to 2.4 million hectares. They’re rolling out better seeds, mechanical pickers, and dense planting tricks, with a push to grow more in Balochistan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa out of the cotton game—sugarcane rules there now—while Punjab and Sindh take the lead. The Green Pakistan Initiative will crack down on rival crops like sugarcane and rice muscling into cotton’s turf.
Meanwhile, textile exports hit $1.4 billion in February 2025, barely budging from last year but plunging 16% from January—the steepest monthly drop in nearly four years. Basic textiles tanked 20% year-on-year, dragging the numbers down, though value-added goods like knitwear (up 9% to $366 million) kept things from flatlining entirely. Still, knitwear alone couldn’t dodge a 22% month-on-month slump. Bedwear, towels, and garments inched up yearly but stumbled monthly, landing at $250 million, $97 million, and $329 million. Cotton yarn? Down 34% from last year to a measly $51 million.
For the first eight months of this fiscal year, textile exports climbed 9% to $12.2 billion, with value-added items like garments jumping 20%, while basic textiles sagged 15%. By year-end, Pakistan’s eyeing $18-19 billion in textile exports, up from $16.7 billion last year. But the All-Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) is sounding alarms: gas prices spiking to $15.38/MMBtu—way above regional rivals—could unravel it all. They’re begging for cheaper gas and direct imports to keep the looms humming. With grid woes and spotty gas for power plants, the industry’s hanging by a thread.
Pakistan’s cotton crisis isn’t just a season’s misfortune—it’s a crossroads for an industry that keeps the nation’s economy stitched together. With textile exports clawing their way to $12.2 billion in the first eight months of 2025, a 9% climb year-on-year, there’s a flicker of resilience. Value-added goods like readymade garments, up 20%, show the sector’s grit, even as basic textiles slump 15%. Yet February’s $1.4 billion haul—flat from last year and down 16% from January—reveals cracks widening under pressure. The 41% cotton shortfall threatens to unravel it all, pushing import bills higher and leaving mills hungry for fiber. The government’s plan—10.56 million bales next year, new seeds, and a Balochistan push—sounds bold, but it’s a gamble against nature’s whims and farmers’ wavering trust. Meanwhile, APTMA’s pleas for affordable gas ring urgent; at $15.38/MMBtu, Pakistan’s textile edge dulls against regional rivals. The Green Pakistan Initiative’s crop curbs and tech upgrades might steady the ship, but only if the grid holds and gas flows. By year-end, exports could hit $18-19 billion, a leap from $16.7 billion, but it’s a tightrope walk. This isn’t just about cotton—it’s about jobs, homes, and a nation’s pride. Pakistan must sow smarter, or risk reaping ruin.